Wednesday, February 25, 2015
By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday
Published: 00:00 GMT, 2 November 2014 | Updated: 02:22 GMT, 2 November 2014Tory MPs gathered in the most English of locations for their away-day, the Cotswolds. David Cameron welcomed them on to his patch by joking that they were all now members of the Chipping Norton set. But it was an American, Jim Messina, who put fire in their bellies and sent them home believing that they can win the next election.
Messina ran Barack Obama’s successful re-election campaign. Last year, the Tories announced that they had signed him up to advise them ahead of the General Election. It was a prestige hire. But many, including several senior Cabinet Ministers, admitted that they didn’t expect him to actually do much.
Yet, in recent months – perhaps, spurred on by his old rival from the Obama campaign David Axelrod joining up with Ed Miliband – he has become increasingly active. He was at the Tory conference at the end of September and jetted in this week just so that he could address this away-day. One Downing Street source purrs: ‘Messina is rolling his sleeves up. He wants to win with us.’
In a sign of the American strategist’s importance, his presentation was introduced by Cameron himself. Many MPs were in the mood to be sceptical, regarding Messina as an over-paid hired gun. But his analysis persuaded all but the most negative MPs.
He told them that the average person thinks about politics for just four minutes a week and there are 26 weeks to the General Election, meaning just 104 minutes to get re-elected. He said that they need voters to think three things in this time: that Cameron is fixing Britain, that he and his team are creating jobs for you and your family and that only the Tories will keep this going. He warned them that if you campaign on things that your opponent is strong on, you’ll lose.
Many of those present took this as an implicit plea for the party to stop going on about immigration, Ukip’s great strength. Indeed, at the top of the party there now seems to be an acceptance that the recent emphasis on this subject has been a mistake.
Messina told them that three things determine who wins elections: raising money, persuading and identifying voters, and turning them out.
He argued that on all these fronts, the Tories were ahead and that is why he was confident they would win. He said that on jobs ‘you guys have an even better story to tell than the President’ did in 2012. He also emphasised Cameron was well ahead on leadership too, scathingly remarking Mitt Romney was a poor candidate. But, obviously, ‘not as poor as Ed Miliband’.
The Tories hired Messina because of his expertise in using new technology to connect with voters. His message was that people go to bed with their smartphones and they are the first thing they think about when they wake up so they need to find a way to reach voters through these devices. Messina finished by boasting: ‘I’ve never lost an election and, believe me, I’m not starting with Ed Miliband.’
Tory MPs all but fist-bumped their approval. But they were brought back down to earth by Cameron’s remarks. He reiterated Messina’s argument that the economy was their strongest suit and their road to victory. But he cautioned that immigration was an obstacle and that they had to get this boulder out of the way before they could head down this path to victory.
Cameron’s problem is that Number 10 hasn’t yet worked out how to do this. The PM’s big speech on immigration will now not take place until after the Rochester by-election, which the Tories are now resigned to losing to Ukip, on November 20.
But why wait? The quicker he moves off immigration and on to the economy the better.
After all, if the average voter is going to think about politics for only 104 minutes between now and polling day, the Tories don’t have any time to waste.
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This Scottish fight has turned into a battle for Labour’s soul
There is a battle for the soul of the Labour party going on in Scotland. The leadership election is under way following Johann Lamont’s bitter resignation, and a new leader will be chosen 12 days before Christmas. This is fast turning into a defining fight between the party’s moderate, reformist, Blairite wing – represented by Jim Murphy – and the Union-backed left, whose candidate, MSP Neil Findlay, writes regularly for far-left newspaper The Morning Star.
It matters so much for two reasons. First, if Labour can’t stop bleeding in Scotland then Ed Miliband won’t be Prime Minister. Polls this week suggested Labour could plummet from 40 seats there to ten or even as low as four. Even if Labour don’t suffer such a rout, the loss of a dozen Scottish seats could be fatal to Miliband’s chances given how tight the 2015 election will be.
Secondly, this is a preview of the epic struggle for control of Labour that will happen across the UK if Miliband loses next year. One nervous frontbencher frets: ‘It is the precursor of the fun coming down the line.’ Miliband will stay officially neutral in the Scottish contest; it is thought that it would be inappropriate for him to endorse any candidate there. But those close to him make little secret of their desire to see Murphy win.
Murphy’s biggest problem, though, is that he is an MP not an MSP. But I understand that a plan is being hatched that would see Murphy stand down from Westminster at the General Election. He would then spend the next 12 months touring Scotland before running to be First Minister in the 2016 Holyrood elections.
Quotes of the Week‘People who have got to Britain call and say, “This is El Dorado and we are staying here.” ’
Natacha Bouchart, mayor of Calais, says her town is full of migrants who believe the UK offers an easy life on state benefits.
‘The moat of the Tower should be filled with barbed wire and bones.’
Art critic Jonathan Jones causes controversy by arguing that the poppy memorial at the Tower of London prettifies the horror of war.
‘I have always been a socialist and I believe in the principles of socialism. But this lot? I can’t in all seriousness go into a booth and put my mark on any one of them.’
Actress Maureen Lipman says she is renouncing five decades of support for the Labour Party.
‘I’m quite looking forward to being in my home for a few days, rather than watching some very average dancing.’
'The weird thing is you get more comfortable in yourself even as time is giving you less reason for it. When you are young and beautiful, you are paranoid and miserable.'
Dame Helen Mirren (right) on the ironies of ageing
‘Haven’t I seen you somewhere before?’
A magistrate, quoted by columnist Matthew Parris, earns a reprimand from his clerk with this quip to a defendant in a niqab.
‘What kind of warped society do we live in where people dress up as half-dead, gory creatures and parade through the streets in the name of fun and entertainment?’
Rodica Wheeler, former mayor of Folkestone, opposes a Halloween-themed charity march.
‘I usually do, but my staff say it’s showing off.’
Justin Welby, Archbishop of Canterbury, on arriving at Westminster from Lambeth and being asked whether he had walked across the Thames.
‘When I see someone dropping litter, I say: “I think you’ve dropped something” or “Pick this up and put it in the bin.” They look at you as if you were speaking Swahili.’
Actress Joanna Lumley reveals her activism is not limited to lobbying for the Gurkhas.
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