Wednesday, February 25, 2015
By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday
Published: 00:10 GMT, 16 November 2014 | Updated: 00:34 GMT, 16 November 2014Has a party ever looked forward to defeat with such eagerness? Thursday’s Rochester and Strood by-election cannot come soon enough for Shadow Cabinet loyalists.
They know they cannot win – or even come close. They are resigned to coming third and securing a lower share of the vote than they did in this seat in 2010.
But they hope Rochester will provide Ed Miliband with some breathing space after a torrid few weeks; that a Ukip victory will turn the unforgiving Westminster spotlight on to David Cameron.
Their aim is that by this time next week, the MPs broadcasting their dissatisfaction with their leader and plotting in the shadows to knife him will be Tory, not Labour.
Even a few weeks ago, these were realistic assumptions. But the game has changed. Cameron will visit the Kent seat again this week. However, it is no longer critical to his political fortunes.
In the days following Mark Reckless’s defection to Ukip, an angry Cameron made the by-election personal, and promised to lead the Tory revenge mission himself.
MPs were ordered to make multiple visits and one Cabinet Minister fretted about a defeat triggering a no-confidence vote in Cameron.
But that was then: the Tory revolt that the Milibandites are relying on shows no sign of materialising. Even one Cameron-sceptic backbencher tells me that defeat in Rochester is now ‘priced in’. One well-connected former Cabinet Minister added: ‘Does Rochester lead to a leadership crisis? No.’
The Tory mood has been transformed by two things. First, Labour’s leadership crisis and vanishing poll lead have made Tory MPs far more confident about their prospects: a governing party that is effectively level in the polls before the General Election campaign has even begun is unlikely to panic. Second, a poll showing that the Tories will lose Rochester this week but win it back in May has reassured them that Ukip won’t find it so easy to unseat Tory MPs come the General Election.
Ukip remains confident it can lure more defectors. But, tellingly, it is getting impatient with how long its targets are taking to make up their minds.
They need to ‘get a move on’, one senior Ukip figure tells me. ‘I would have thought that there would be other Tory MPs, and in Kent in particular, who would need to make a pretty quick calculation.’
Indeed, Ukip want any defectors over by January when they will start selecting candidates in a slew of seats.
So if the Tories aren’t going to get Miliband out of the hole he’s in, he is going to have to do it himself. Yes, those close to him concede, the last few weeks have been difficult. But, look, they say: in times of trouble Ed ‘reaches deep into his own beliefs’.
And ‘absolutely core’ to that ‘is that he thinks there is something deeply wrong with the way this country is run’. But Miliband’s problem is that this is the argument he’s been making for four years and voters aren’t buying it.
His speech last week won’t have won over many converts among ‘everyday people’ and did little to convince his critics within the party. They will keep their concerns to themselves for now, though. One Labour insider says, ‘The mood is, “whatever your view is, shut up and get behind this.”’
Labour won’t win if its MPs are just marching sullenly and silent towards the Tory guns. Miliband needs to give them something to shout about, something real to sell on the doorsteps. Without that, Labour is doomed in May.
Jeb Bush – brother of former US President George W Bush – is running for President. At least, that’s the view of those who met him on his trip to London last week.
It’s a sign of how seriously the Tory leadership is taking the prospect of another Bush presidency that the former governor of Florida met with nearly everyone who matters in today’s Conservative Party.
David Cameron was determined to fit Bush in before flying off to the G20 in Australia, and had drinks with him at No 10.
Bush then went on to dine with Boris Johnson and a slew of Cabinet Ministers – Culture Secretary Sajid Javid, Environment Secretary Liz Truss, Business Minister Matt Hancock and Chief Whip Michael Gove.
Over a very English meal of beef, Bush was – I’m told – particularly warm in his praise of Gove’s education reforms.
He finished off his London tour with a visit to George Osborne at No 11.
Those who saw Bush came away with the impression that he felt it was his duty to run for President.
If Jeb does become President Bush and Cameron is still Prime Minister in 2017, Downing Street would have a congenial ally.
The Government is still looking for a chairman for its child abuse inquiry.
Elizabeth Butler-Sloss had to step down because her late brother had been attorney-general in the 1980s.
Second choice Fiona Woolf had to go after this paper revealed her links to Leon Brittan, who was Home Secretary in the 1980s.
In an attempt to find a new, acceptable chairman, Theresa May invited the Home Affairs Select Committee to nominate candidates. But its chairman, Keith Vaz, dismissed this suggestion, saying it was ‘totally inappropriate’. Why? Because some members of the committee are terrified that if they put someone forward who is also found to have potential conflicts of interest, their own reputations will be tarnished.
It’s pathetic. If this inquiry is going to get the leadership it so desperately needs, politicians have to put aside such petty fears.
They must work together to find a chairman who can command the respect of the abuse victims, the public and Parliament.
Things are getting a bit hairy for the Prime Minister’s protection team, who are all growing moustaches for Movember.
Catch them while you can: Cameron looks as if he is being guarded by a posse of Mexican drug lords.
‘I’m still trying to figure out if it’s the best or the worst thing I’ve ever done.’
Former US Navy Seal Robert O’Neill, who says he killed Osama Bin Laden.
‘The FA being slammed for its ethics by Fifa is like being chastised by Gordon Ramsay for bad language.’
Gary Lineker, after a report accused English officials of infringing regulations in their bid to host the 2018 World Cup.
‘I hate having to make this argument. I hate it… but our small island simply cannot absorb the present numbers.’
Sir John Major warns current levels of immigration may push Britain out of the EU.
'I might be a big fan after tonight... I think it will be absolutely amazing.'
Former Towie star Amy Childs, asked at a music awards about the spread of Ebola, mistakes it for an up-and-coming pop band.
‘Thirteen per cent of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. Thirty-four per cent believe in ghosts.’
Political commentator Dan Hodges, with more bad polling data for the beleaguered Labour leader.
‘I mean, they spent their life looking at Keith Richards passed out on the couch.’
Jerry Hall explains why her children were never tempted to use drugs.
‘It’s like landing a balloon in a city centre on a windy day with your eyes closed.’
Scientist Matthew Genge describes the European Space Agency’s attempt to put a probe on a spinning comet 300 million miles away.
‘Whether you are here on business, pleasure or seeking asylum, I wish you a pleasant stay.’
British Airways pilot’s light-hearted announcement to passengers after landing at Heathrow.
‘If I were there [with you], Margaret, I’d throw my hat in the door before I came in.’
Ronald Reagan, in newly released phone tapes, soothes Mrs Thatcher after the US invasion of Grenada. Throwing in a hat was a way of testing if you were welcome.
‘Fun at the Royal Variety with Kate Middleton, who was at my school! Told her she was the one that got away. She laughed. Wills kind of laughed.’
Comedian Jack Whitehall tells his Twitter followers what really happened at the Palladium.
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