JAMES FORSYTH: David Cameron and the election debates ~ VeraLPoker

By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday

Published: 00:12 GMT, 25 January 2015 | Updated: 10:03 GMT, 25 January 2015

On Tuesday, there will be just 100 days to go until the General Election.

So, Labour will push the button marked NHS, and the Tories will flick the economy switch. Ed Miliband will make an emotive plea for voters to ‘save the NHS as we know it’, while the Tories will use the growth figures out on Tuesday morning to make the case that only they can be trusted with your wallet.

So far, so predictable. What is far less certain is whether the two main party leaders will make their pitches in the TV debates that dominated the campaign last time round.

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The American-style television debates between the 2010 party leaders (left to right) David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown dominated the election campaign - but plans for similar debates this year have led to arguments

On Friday, representatives from four parties – the Tories, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Ukip – trooped into the boardroom of Channel 4. They were there to discuss with the four main channels – the BBC, ITV, Sky and C4 – their new proposals for two seven-party debates and one head-to-head between David Cameron and Miliband.

As soon as everyone had arrived, it was clear there was a problem. One of those present tells me: ‘It was very formal and very frosty’ – a diplomatic way of saying the meeting turned into a car crash.

Not, this time, because of the Tories making objections. Instead, the other parties made no secret of their irritation that the broadcasters have sprung on them a new set of proposals which seemed largely designed to address Cameron’s rejection of their previous offer. Their mood was not helped by the fact that Craig Oliver, Cameron’s director of communications, couldn’t suppress a smile at their displeasure.

The broadcasters had particular trouble in explaining the involvement of the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists. For instance, the NHS in Scotland and Wales is not on the ballot paper in May because it is a devolved issue. As Labour pointed out, the broadcasters would have to make clear in any questions asked that the leaders were talking only about the English NHS. In this case, why should Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who won’t even be a candidate in the General Election, get to answer?

Strikingly, after the meeting there was a consensus across the political spectrum that the broadcasters would end up having to invite the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, who are arguing for their place alongside the Scots and the Welsh Nationalists.

These are high stakes for Labour, which is why Miliband sent Douglas Alexander, who is running his election campaign, and his head of strategy, Greg Beales, to negotiate on his behalf.

Despite their criticisms of the proposed format, Labour regard having their Left-wing opponents – the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru – on stage as a price worth paying for a one-on-one with Cameron. This head-to-head is crucial to their attempt to persuade voters that Miliband is up to being Prime Minister.

Ukip, for their part, are irritated that they are being offered no more airtime than the Greens.

It is the Liberal Democrats, though, who are the sorest.

They fear that the seven-way debates, which promise to be chaotic, shouty affairs, will give them little chance to explain the role they’ve played in the Coalition. Unsurprisingly, they are pushing the broadcasters to come up with a different offer.

The Tories, meanwhile, are sitting tight. They believe Cameron has little to gain and much to lose from the TV debates and they are hoping objections from the other parties will do their job for them and foil the broadcasters’ plans.

The broadcasters are now suggesting two seven-party debates, with one head-to-head between the Conservative's Cameron (left) and Labour's Ed Miliband (right)

The broadcasters know what the Tories are up to, hence their threat to ‘empty chair’ Cameron.

But the Tories won’t be browbeaten into turning up.

They know a TV debate without Cameron slugging it out with Miliband will make a mockery of the format.

The Tory strategy appears to be working. After Friday’s meeting, one of those who desperately wants these debates to take place, grimly conceded that the Tories look like hitting the jackpot: ‘They’re killing the debates without getting the blame.’

George endures a VERY frosty encounter in snowy Davos

Brief chat: George Osborne

The bitter rivalry between George Osborne and Gordon Brown has been simmering for almost a decade.

So it was slightly awkward, to say the least, when the pair bumped into each other on the street in the Swiss ski resort town of Davos last Thursday, where they were attending the World Economic Forum. The conversation between the Chancellor and his predecessor was brief.

The former Prime Minister, apparently, archly remarked to Osborne: ‘You must be very confident if you are in Davos,’ and that was that.

The exchange was even frostier than the snow-clad mountains behind them.

PM fumes over jailhouse flop

David Cameron expressed his intense frustration at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting about Britain’s failure to make good on his idea of building a prison… in Jamaica.

Why, he fumed, had so little progress been made? It was, after all, his brainwave – and it was signed off by the National Security Council for Britain.

So why is the PM worked up? In exchange for the prison being built, Jamaica would sign and ratify a compulsory prisoner transfer agreement that would enable Britain to send back about 700 Jamaican nationals taking up valuable space in UK cells. But, in the words of one Minister, the scheme has simply ‘disappeared into the machine’. Almost certainly what’s particularly incensing Cameron is that not only is the scheme doable, it’s ODAble – the Whitehall way of saying the prison could be paid for out of the sizeable Official Development Assistance budget.

I understand that since what witnesses describe as Cameron’s ‘flash of frustration’, the log-jam has been broken. But senior Tories caution that the plan is highly unlikely to feature in their manifesto or be publicly agreed to before the Election.

In the chancelleries of Europe, they’re holding their breath waiting for the votes to come in from Greece this evening. For if the anti-austerity Syriza party wins the election, as the polls suggest, the eurozone crisis will enter a new and more dangerous phase.

Syriza want an easing of the terms of the Greek bailout. But the Germans, the European Central Bank and the European Commission are adamant that they will be given no leeway. If a Syriza government won’t back down, the Germans are prepared to take the extremely risky step of trying to kick Greece out of the single currency.

This would also have an impact on Britain. If Syriza triumphs, another General Election will take place against the backdrop of a crisis in the eurozone, which might play into the hands of the Tories. If people start worrying about the dangers of sovereign debt defaults and bank runs again, the Tories’ argument that this isn’t the time to take a risk on the economy becomes a lot more potent.

Quotes of the week

Canandian tennis player Eugenie Bouchard was asked to give viewers 'a twirl' after a victory in the Australian Open

‘Anyone reading this letter who has a problem with it, I think really has a problem.’

David Cameron hits back at claims that a Government letter asking Islamic leaders for help against extremism was unfair.

‘Some people think that in order to be good Catholics, we have to be like rabbits.’

The Pope tells the faithful to go forth and multiply, but not too much.

‘You classist gimp... it is your populist, envy-based, vote-hunting ideas which make our country c**p, far more than me and my s*** songs and my plummy accent.’

Singer James Blunt, after Labour’s Chris Bryant named him while calling for more working-class people in the arts.

'Can you give us a twirl?'

What Canadian tennis player Eugenie Bouchard was asked by a commentator after a victory in the Australian Open

‘The Sun has got its top on.’

Headline in The Times, as The Sun appeared to remove topless models from its pages.

‘My house that used to smell of bread and roses, with an undertone of terrier, now smelt like a wet bonfire.’

Novelist Daisy Goodwin after her home was consumed by fire.

‘The public may assume the report is being sexed down.’

Nick Clegg, on continuing delays to publication of the Chilcot Report on the Iraq War

‘Westminster Abbey flying half-mast flag for dead king of Saudi Arabia, where Christianity is banned and possessing a Bible is illegal.’

Journalist Andrew Neil joins a storm of protest against the tributes on public buildings.

‘We considered “comptroller”, but that was rejected after a discussion with the great Brendan Carlin of The Mail on Sunday. He immediately said “fat” and I’m afraid the image of Thomas The Tank Engine diverted us from comptroller.’

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP tells the House about the title of a new Commons role.

‘Ladies and gentlemen, this is not a part of the play. Is there a doctor in the house?’

Fellow actor Noel White after Brian Blessed collapsed on stage. Blessed was revived and finished the show.

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