Wednesday, February 25, 2015
By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday
Published: 00:18 GMT, 22 February 2015 | Updated: 14:08 GMT, 22 February 2015
For the next few weeks, Mariupol in Ukraine is the most important city in Europe. If pro-Russian separatists take it, senior British government figures tell me, the United States will start to arm the Ukrainian government directly. This will lead to a major escalation in the conflict and prompt the most serious showdown between Washington and Moscow since the end of the Cold War. A proxy war between the US and Russia will be raging on Europe’s Eastern border.
At the top of the British Government, there is mounting alarm this escalation seems more likely than not. They believe Vladimir Putin has no interest in a resolution of the conflict that isn’t on his terms. One senior figure tells me: ‘Putin will do what it takes to stop Nato and the EU expanding any further east.’ And one British source familiar with the US position says Barack Obama is under ‘enormous pressure’ from Congress to act, and if Mariupol does fall, his hand will be forced.
Mariupol in the Ukraine is the most important city in Europe for the next few weeks. Pictured: Ukrainian volunteers of the Azov battalion at their training base in the city
A diplomatic source laments that ‘the Europeans are being naive about Russia’ when they try to broker a ceasefire. Indeed, the Minsk II agreement that Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel helped negotiate earlier this month, and which was breached almost immediately, didn’t even require the border between Russia and Ukraine to be closed. This meant the Kremlin could continue supplying military hardware to its separatist allies.
It is uncertain whether even the US sending weapons to Ukraine would be enough to make Putin pull back. One experienced foreign policy hand says his control of the Russian media means that he is less casualty-averse than Western leaders, so ‘you cannot bleed Putin to change his views’.
the British Government is becoming increasingly concerned about the Russian president’s actions and where he will stop. Pictured: Vladimir Putin
What is clear, though, is that the British Government is becoming increasingly concerned about the Russian president’s actions and where he will stop. One source tells me: ‘He’s not intending to honour any set of civilised values or agreements.’
The military has long been worried that Putin will try to replicate what he has done in Ukraine in one of the Baltic States. If he does, Britain – because of Nato’s Article 5 which requires all member states to come to the aid of another member under attack – would have to come to their defence. But both military and political figures worry that the country hasn’t grasped the seriousness of the situation, and the next few weeks will see politicians and generals laying out Britain’s treaty obligations for all to see.
Labour accuse David Cameron of having been absent from efforts to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis. A party source tells me that ‘you wouldn’t even bother sending out a Search and Rescue team for Britain at the moment’ – a waspish comment that indicates foreign affairs are going to play a more important role in the Election campaign than anyone expected.
Cameron will come under sustained pressure to guarantee that Britain continues to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence – something that, revealingly, he refuses to do at present. At a time when Russian bombers are forcing civilian flights into British airports to be diverted, it is hard to justify failing to do that.
But if voters are worried about Ukraine when they head to the ballot box, Cameron may benefit. The public might conclude that this is no time for a novice.
Now even Nick's own MPs are giving him the chop
TESSA MUNT might be the Liberal Democrat MP for Wells, but she isn’t too keen on featuring Nick Clegg in her leaflets. Previously, she has featured a far bigger and more prominent picture of David Cameron than her leader, and has cropped the Deputy Prime Minister out of a photo with her.
But in a recent leaflet, Clegg is subjected to a new humiliation. Munt was photographed with him and Lib Dem Health Minister Norman Lamb to highlight the party’s commitment to mental health. But in the leaflet, only Munt and Lamb are in the shot. Why do so many Lib Dems not want to be seen with their leader?
Here one minute.... Tessa Munt with Norman Lamb and Nick Clegg in the original image
The cropped version that appeared in Tessa Munt's leaflets, minus the Deputy Prime Minister
THERE is a major Whitehall row brewing over whether Sir Bob Kerslake should be given a peerage.
Former heads of the Civil Service are traditionally sent to the Lords, but there are two complications in the Kerslake case.
First, David Cameron has already used up nine of the ten public service peerages he is allowed for this Parliament. In both diplomatic and military circles, officials are pushing candidates they feel are more worthy than Sir Bob for the last slot.
The second is the circumstances of his departure. Kerslake was in the job for only two and a bit years and his tenure was widely considered a disappointment. Why, ask his critics, should the Honours System be used as a reward for failure?
Before Christmas, David Cameron effectively conceded that the principle of freedom of movement would not be on the table come the EU renegotiation. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose support Cameron needs, had made it clear that this is a red line for her. She feels viscerally about the issue, having grown up in Communist East Germany where no such freedoms existed.
But there are now signs that if Cameron wins the Election, he can make the case for tighter controls on the movement of workers between EU states – with the help of an unlikely ally in France, which is becoming concerned about the fact that it effectively has no border with Italy.
As refugees flee Islamic State in Libya and try to get to cross the Mediterranean to Italy, there are fears that jihadis could be hiding among them. And with the 2017 presidential election looming – in which the National Front are threateningly to do alarmingly well – the French political class are beginning to question the freedom of movement between countries with different immigration policies.
QUOTES of the week
‘Modern politicians have grown up in absolute security. They’ve never felt a threat to their existence. They’ve taken peace for granted and decimated the Forces. Let’s hope we don’t pay the price.’
Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, after RAF jets were again scrambled to intercept Russian bombers.
‘I’ve worked in war zones but I’ve never been as frightened as I was after smoking that.’
Newsreader Jon Snow, after smoking super-strength ‘skunk’ cannabis for a documentary.
‘If it was my son and I, left in the jungle, I’d insist he ate me.’
Survival expert Bear Grylls says he would encourage his children to cannibalise him if need be.
‘For the rich and very prosperous, a couple of hundred quid a month isn’t going to make a difference. They’d spend that on lunch.’
Lord Kinnock backs Labour proposals for a mansion tax.
'I made a lot of money telling k*** gags. Myleene Klass made a lot of money taking a shower in a bikini.'
Comedian Ben Elton tells complaining fellow celebrities they should pay up and shut up if the mansion tax is introduced.
‘Big White Streaker… and Custom-Made Rich People Street.’
Bamboozled: Californian Bobbie Beale was left scratching her head after she started being abused online by EastEnders fans
The ‘more descriptive’ names VisitBritain plans to give the Cerne Abbas Giant and Savile Row to make them accessible to Far Eastern visitors.
‘I’d rather be younger and not know so much.’
Dame Judi Dench says that growing wiser in old age is no substitute for being young.
‘All right, Freddie, you’ve had your fun, now f*** off.’
Cricketer Freddie Flintoff reveals what a Downing Street security guard said on finding him slumped in the PM’s chair while celebrating England’s 2005 Ashes win.
‘I’d be grateful if Ed Balls would send me the contact details of the gardener who cuts his hedge for £10.’
A letter writer to The Times, after the Shadow Chancellor revealed he asks for receipts even when paying small cash amounts to gardeners.
‘Why are people from Scotland tweeting me about killing someone named Lucy?’
Bewildered Californian teenager Bobbie Beale, who was swamped with Twitter abuse from people mistaking her for Bobby Beale, the 11-year-old killer of his sister Lucy in BBC soap EastEnders.
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Published: 00:18 GMT, 22 February 2015 | Updated: 14:08 GMT, 22 February 2015
For the next few weeks, Mariupol in Ukraine is the most important city in Europe. If pro-Russian separatists take it, senior British government figures tell me, the United States will start to arm the Ukrainian government directly. This will lead to a major escalation in the conflict and prompt the most serious showdown between Washington and Moscow since the end of the Cold War. A proxy war between the US and Russia will be raging on Europe’s Eastern border.
At the top of the British Government, there is mounting alarm this escalation seems more likely than not. They believe Vladimir Putin has no interest in a resolution of the conflict that isn’t on his terms. One senior figure tells me: ‘Putin will do what it takes to stop Nato and the EU expanding any further east.’ And one British source familiar with the US position says Barack Obama is under ‘enormous pressure’ from Congress to act, and if Mariupol does fall, his hand will be forced.
Mariupol in the Ukraine is the most important city in Europe for the next few weeks. Pictured: Ukrainian volunteers of the Azov battalion at their training base in the city A diplomatic source laments that ‘the Europeans are being naive about Russia’ when they try to broker a ceasefire. Indeed, the Minsk II agreement that Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel helped negotiate earlier this month, and which was breached almost immediately, didn’t even require the border between Russia and Ukraine to be closed. This meant the Kremlin could continue supplying military hardware to its separatist allies.
It is uncertain whether even the US sending weapons to Ukraine would be enough to make Putin pull back. One experienced foreign policy hand says his control of the Russian media means that he is less casualty-averse than Western leaders, so ‘you cannot bleed Putin to change his views’.
the British Government is becoming increasingly concerned about the Russian president’s actions and where he will stop. Pictured: Vladimir PutinWhat is clear, though, is that the British Government is becoming increasingly concerned about the Russian president’s actions and where he will stop. One source tells me: ‘He’s not intending to honour any set of civilised values or agreements.’
The military has long been worried that Putin will try to replicate what he has done in Ukraine in one of the Baltic States. If he does, Britain – because of Nato’s Article 5 which requires all member states to come to the aid of another member under attack – would have to come to their defence. But both military and political figures worry that the country hasn’t grasped the seriousness of the situation, and the next few weeks will see politicians and generals laying out Britain’s treaty obligations for all to see.
Labour accuse David Cameron of having been absent from efforts to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis. A party source tells me that ‘you wouldn’t even bother sending out a Search and Rescue team for Britain at the moment’ – a waspish comment that indicates foreign affairs are going to play a more important role in the Election campaign than anyone expected.
Cameron will come under sustained pressure to guarantee that Britain continues to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence – something that, revealingly, he refuses to do at present. At a time when Russian bombers are forcing civilian flights into British airports to be diverted, it is hard to justify failing to do that.
But if voters are worried about Ukraine when they head to the ballot box, Cameron may benefit. The public might conclude that this is no time for a novice.
Now even Nick's own MPs are giving him the chop
TESSA MUNT might be the Liberal Democrat MP for Wells, but she isn’t too keen on featuring Nick Clegg in her leaflets. Previously, she has featured a far bigger and more prominent picture of David Cameron than her leader, and has cropped the Deputy Prime Minister out of a photo with her.
But in a recent leaflet, Clegg is subjected to a new humiliation. Munt was photographed with him and Lib Dem Health Minister Norman Lamb to highlight the party’s commitment to mental health. But in the leaflet, only Munt and Lamb are in the shot. Why do so many Lib Dems not want to be seen with their leader?
Here one minute.... Tessa Munt with Norman Lamb and Nick Clegg in the original image The cropped version that appeared in Tessa Munt's leaflets, minus the Deputy Prime MinisterTHERE is a major Whitehall row brewing over whether Sir Bob Kerslake should be given a peerage.
Former heads of the Civil Service are traditionally sent to the Lords, but there are two complications in the Kerslake case.
First, David Cameron has already used up nine of the ten public service peerages he is allowed for this Parliament. In both diplomatic and military circles, officials are pushing candidates they feel are more worthy than Sir Bob for the last slot.
The second is the circumstances of his departure. Kerslake was in the job for only two and a bit years and his tenure was widely considered a disappointment. Why, ask his critics, should the Honours System be used as a reward for failure?
Before Christmas, David Cameron effectively conceded that the principle of freedom of movement would not be on the table come the EU renegotiation. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose support Cameron needs, had made it clear that this is a red line for her. She feels viscerally about the issue, having grown up in Communist East Germany where no such freedoms existed.
But there are now signs that if Cameron wins the Election, he can make the case for tighter controls on the movement of workers between EU states – with the help of an unlikely ally in France, which is becoming concerned about the fact that it effectively has no border with Italy.
As refugees flee Islamic State in Libya and try to get to cross the Mediterranean to Italy, there are fears that jihadis could be hiding among them. And with the 2017 presidential election looming – in which the National Front are threateningly to do alarmingly well – the French political class are beginning to question the freedom of movement between countries with different immigration policies.
QUOTES of the week
‘Modern politicians have grown up in absolute security. They’ve never felt a threat to their existence. They’ve taken peace for granted and decimated the Forces. Let’s hope we don’t pay the price.’
Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, after RAF jets were again scrambled to intercept Russian bombers.
‘I’ve worked in war zones but I’ve never been as frightened as I was after smoking that.’
Newsreader Jon Snow, after smoking super-strength ‘skunk’ cannabis for a documentary.
‘If it was my son and I, left in the jungle, I’d insist he ate me.’
Survival expert Bear Grylls says he would encourage his children to cannibalise him if need be.
‘For the rich and very prosperous, a couple of hundred quid a month isn’t going to make a difference. They’d spend that on lunch.’
Lord Kinnock backs Labour proposals for a mansion tax.
'I made a lot of money telling k*** gags. Myleene Klass made a lot of money taking a shower in a bikini.'
Comedian Ben Elton tells complaining fellow celebrities they should pay up and shut up if the mansion tax is introduced.
‘Big White Streaker… and Custom-Made Rich People Street.’
Bamboozled: Californian Bobbie Beale was left scratching her head after she started being abused online by EastEnders fansThe ‘more descriptive’ names VisitBritain plans to give the Cerne Abbas Giant and Savile Row to make them accessible to Far Eastern visitors.
‘I’d rather be younger and not know so much.’
Dame Judi Dench says that growing wiser in old age is no substitute for being young.
‘All right, Freddie, you’ve had your fun, now f*** off.’
Cricketer Freddie Flintoff reveals what a Downing Street security guard said on finding him slumped in the PM’s chair while celebrating England’s 2005 Ashes win.
‘I’d be grateful if Ed Balls would send me the contact details of the gardener who cuts his hedge for £10.’
A letter writer to The Times, after the Shadow Chancellor revealed he asks for receipts even when paying small cash amounts to gardeners.
‘Why are people from Scotland tweeting me about killing someone named Lucy?’
Bewildered Californian teenager Bobbie Beale, who was swamped with Twitter abuse from people mistaking her for Bobby Beale, the 11-year-old killer of his sister Lucy in BBC soap EastEnders.
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