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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday

Published: 22:48 GMT, 25 October 2014 | Updated: 08:33 GMT, 26 October 2014

The European Commission’s outrageous demand that he stump up £1.7billion in less than six weeks time has propelled David Cameron into the most serious confrontation of Britain’s 42-year membership of the Brussels club. 

And nobody should be in any doubt that he’s up for the fight. As a pumped-up Cabinet Minister declares: ‘This provides us with an opportunity to tell them where to get off.’

One of those who will guide Cameron through the next few weeks is exhorting him to ‘channel the spirit of Margaret’. Just as Thatcher did over the British rebate, he must be prepared to hold up all other European business until he gets his way. 


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Up for the fight: David Cameron has insisted that Britain will not pay the £1.7billion sum demanded by the EU Up for the fight: David Cameron has insisted that Britain will not pay the £1.7billion sum demanded by the EU

Backed by Cabinet allies fuming at Britain being told to pay what they call ‘a growth tax’ to the European Commission, there are already signs that Cameron is serious about making good this threat.

I understand that he is ready to push the button on the nuclear option of blocking the measures needed by the Eurozone countries to stave off the coming crisis there unless this demand is dropped. One Number 10 source declared defiantly: ‘We’re going to fight and fight on this one.’

The tough talk is being driven by three things. First, the politics: Cameron knows that writing a massive cheque to Brussels would be a complete gift to Ukip and would tip his own party into despair. A senior Tory backbencher cautions that Cameron is ‘going to come under immense pressure not to pay at all’.

Second, genuine fury at how Brussels has behaved. An influential government figure compared the Commission’s behaviour to that of the worst kind of payday loan company.

Then there’s the finances – there isn’t extra money lying around. The Treasury is already scouring Whitehall to try and drum up some savings ahead of George Osborne’s autumn statement in six weeks times. 

‘He hasn’t got €2billion. He’s already scrambling around behind the sofa to try and find a couple of hundred million pounds because he’s behind on the revenues’, one Cabinet Minister said of the Chancellor.

Trouble for Cameron won’t just come from Brussels. British government lawyers and civil servants are fretting that not paying is illegal and will advise the Prime Minister to obey the law.

But inside Downing Street they are strikingly relaxed about the possibility of the Commission taking them to court and are considering Britain launching its own pre-emptive legal action. 

One influential figure within No10 snorts: ‘What can they do? They will talk about infraction proceedings. But I don’t see any downside in just saying No.’

Having started this, Cameron can’t be seen to back down. One Cabinet Minister hopes they ‘don’t have a Duke of York moment’, where troops are marched to the top of the hill only to be marched back down again. 

Another admitted that succumbing to Brussels’ demands will ‘demonstrate impotence’ and create an impression of incompetence. They remarked exasperatedly: ‘How did no one see this coming?’ 

Defiant: European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has claimed the bill is not up for negotiation Defiant: European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has claimed the bill is not up for negotiation

In Whitehall, attention is focusing on when Treasury officials first knew and informed David Gauke, who is responsible for the EU budget. 

A British Prime Minister defying the law and simply refusing to pay the Brussels bill is unprecedented. But Cameron has no other choice. For if he endorses this cheque, he would be signing away his chances of winning the next Election.

George digs out his white tie for a Downton knees-up 

Next Friday, on Halloween, George Osborne will attend a Downton Abbey-themed dinner with his local Conservative Association.

The Downton theme is in honour of the show’s creator, and Tory peer, Julian Fellowes – who is making a speech at the event. 

No hint of austerity: The Mail on Sunday's impression of George Osborne in Downton Abbey No hint of austerity: The Mail on Sunday's impression of George Osborne in Downton Abbey

Tickets are £145 a pop and the dress is ‘white tie preferred’, all very Earl of Grantham, and not a particularly good look for our austerity Chancellor. The money raised will be used to help campaign in the marginal seats they must win next year.

Osborne must be hoping that life doesn’t imitate Downton too much. For this series of the show has a public school-educated Conservative Prime Minister losing a General Election and being replaced by a Labour one who governs in coalition with the Liberals.

Can Jim be jemmied out of Westminster? 

Ed Miliband heads to Scotland this week with the party there in turmoil after the resignation of its leader Johann Lamont. Influential Labour figures acknowledge that a failure to sort out the mess that is the Scottish Labour party could cost the party the General Election next year. 

The SNP is threatening to take as many as a dozen seats from Labour in 2015, which would make it significantly harder for Miliband to get to Number 10.

Turmoil: Ed Miliband heads to Scotland this week with the party in disorder following the resignation of its leader Johann Lamont (left) Turmoil: Ed Miliband heads to Scotland this week with the party in disorder following the resignation of its leader Johann Lamont (left)

To stop this, Labour is going to need a talented and charismatic leader to replace the uninspiring Lamont. But no one in the Scottish Labour Party fits that bill. So Miliband will have to persuade one of Labour’s Westminster Scots to go back home. 

This won’t be easy. The most compelling candidate, Jim Murphy, ran David Miliband’s leadership campaign. He has never been an Ed fan and is still keen on a UK Cabinet job. But as the Labour star of the referendum campaign, he would give the party the best hope of keeping its 40 Scottish seats.

Lamont, in a phrase designed to wound, lamented that Scottish Labour was treated like a ‘branch office of a party based in London’ by Miliband’s office. If that is to change, Scottish Labour needs a leader of stature, someone who can send the Nationalists home to think again.

Quotes of the week

‘I turned in all tranquillity and blew his face, like a cat stroked the wrong way, and said, “Don’t you ever dare to do that again. Never again!” ’

Stunning: Italian actress Sophia Loren on the set of The Millionairess  Stunning: Italian actress Sophia Loren on the set of The Millionairess 

Sophia Loren recalls dealing with an amorous, hands-on Marlon Brando

‘I’m very clear about who the boss is, about who I answer to, and it is the British people. They want this. I will fix it.’

Prime Minister David Cameron, on plans for a renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU in advance of a referendum on whether we stay in it.

‘This is more impressive than a man walking on the moon.’

Prof Geoffrey Raisman, who discovered the technique which allowed paralysed fireman Darek Fidyka – whose spinal cord had been severed – to walk again.

‘Until last night I didn’t have a clue who you were, and then I Googled you and you’ve been in quite a lot of films.’

D-Day hero Peter Comfort, on meeting Hollywood star Brad Pitt for the first time.

‘Welcome to Twitter! Abdicate.’ Twitter troll to the Queen, within four minutes of her first ever tweet.

‘The EU is a thirsty vampire feasting on UK taxpayers’ blood. We need to protect the innocent victims, who are us.’

Ukip leader Nigel Farage reacts to EU demands for an extra £1.7bn from the UK.

‘People might want to stand back. I don’t think we get any points for hitting spectators.’

Richard Pryor, a member of Britain’s first blind darts team, warns onlookers.

‘Hate to say, but few houses for sale with good addresses under £10m in London.’

Socialite Amanda Eliasch bemoans the capital’s property market.

‘Never have an affair with anybody that you wouldn’t enjoy having lunch or dinner with in 25 years’ time.’

Dame Diana Rigg’s advice on love.

‘If I self-diagnose and my GP confirms it, do I get 55 quid or does he?’

Gordon Garment, a letter writer to the Daily Telegraph, on proposals that GPs are paid £55 for every dementia diagnosis.

‘I’m glad folks think I look different! I’m living a different, happy, more fulfilling life.’

Actress Renée Zellweger makes no mention of plastic surgery after revealing a startling change of image.

‘I fell in love with my boss. Only, my boss was President of the United States.’

Former White House intern Monica Lewinsky speaks for the first time about her feelings for Bill Clinton.

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