Wednesday, February 25, 2015
By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday
Published: 00:47 GMT, 12 October 2014 | Updated: 00:48 GMT, 12 October 2014
David Cameron is in the fight of his political life. He heads to Rochester this week to lead the charge against Ukip and the Tory defector Mark Reckless ahead of the by-election there. Success here is absolutely critical to Cameron’s chances at the General Election.
In a sign of the concern at the top of the Tory Party about the situation, a Cabinet Minister warns: ‘If Reckless wins Rochester, there’ll be 46 names’, a reference to the process by which Tory MPs force a leadership contest.
These 46 names coming in would result in Cameron having to submit himself to a vote of no confidence by his MPs. This Cabinet member predicts: ‘Cameron would win. But it would be very damaging.’ Indeed, given Cameron is one of the Tories’ strongest assets, anything that weakens him could be fatal to the Party’s election prospects. Little wonder that another Cabinet Minister claims this by-election will be ‘one hell of a battle’.
![One Cabinet Minister warns: ‘If [Mark] Reckless (left) wins Rochester, there’ll be 46 names’, a reference to the process by which Tory MPs force a leadership contest. It would be a dream for Nigel Farage (right)](file:///C:/Program%20Files%20(x86)/ABS/Auto%20Blog%20Samurai/data/VeraLPoker/James%20Forsyth/)
One Cabinet Minister warns: ‘If [Mark] Reckless (left) wins Rochester, there’ll be 46 names’, a reference to the process by which Tory MPs force a leadership contest. It would be a dream for Nigel Farage (right)
Tory MPs took Thursday’s loss to Ukip with relative calm. But this won’t be the case if the Farage bandwagon turns into a steamroller. ‘If they take Rochester and Strood,’ a senior backbencher says, ‘a number of people will conclude they have a better chance of being re-elected as Ukip.’ Tory opponents share this view. One of the Ukip leader’s confidants tells me: ‘If we can win in Rochester, then the sky is the limit in terms of other people coming over.’
More defections and a leadership crisis would make it impossible for the Tories to achieve any kind of result next year. Long before his 50th birthday, Cameron’s political career would be over. This explains why his 48th birthday celebrations on Thursday were limited to a five-minute cup of tea and a slice of cake.
The Tories are planning to throw everything they’ve got at Rochester: Cabinet Ministers are preparing themselves for half a dozen visits each to the seat. The party favours a lengthy campaign; there is support for a late November date for the by-election.
They believe this will enable them to maximise their cash advantage, expose Reckless’s weakness as a candidate, and convince people there how much their vote matters. They also intend to play on the cost of what Reckless has done, pointing out his decision to force a by-election is costing local council taxpayers a quarter of a million pounds.
There isn’t, though, any certainty about this approach working. ‘We’re not confident about Rochester,’ one Downing Street figure tells me, while a senior figure in the Party’s election machine says: ‘We need to win it but whether we will…’ Ukip, by contrast, are crowing that the Tories’ initial campaigning there has ‘gone down very badly’.
Even Labour’s Ukip problem, exposed by the close result in Heywood and Middleton, isn’t giving the Tories any comfort. As one Minister laments: ‘They take Labour votes but our seats.’
However, the Tories do think that Labour, and more specifically its leader, can help them get out of jail. ‘Use Ed Miliband to beat Ukip – that’s the only strategy in town,’ declares one Downing Street insider. The Tories’ aim is to ram home the message that if you vote Farage, you’ll get Miliband in the belief that people will ultimately shy away from propelling the Labour leader to power. One Cabinet Minister is adamant that, ‘You’ve got to tell people what they’re voting for’.
The Tories’ research shows the more important that voters believe an election is, the more likely they are to back them. So, expect to see a rise in the rhetorical stakes.
Many on the Tory benches, though, are not convinced. There is irritation the leadership has let the problem get to this stage. A former minister remarks: ‘What really p***** me off is Cameron hasn’t controlled immigration – the one thing we could have done.’
Political earthquake: All eyes - and the vast resources of the Conservative party - will now turn to Rochester
There is even speculation in Whitehall that the Tories might try to act on this problem at this late stage. Intriguingly, a senior Lib Dem tells me they are bracing themselves for the Tories attempting something truly radical on the question of EU immigration.
In politics, all roads lead to Rochester. If Cameron can hold there, he is in with a fighting chance of staying Prime Minister next year. But if the purple tide sweeps up the Medway, then his hopes of a second term could be washed away.
The Prime Minister has been saying sorry a lot recently. But while his apology to the Queen for revealing their private conversations must have been excruciating, his one to Geoffrey Boycott for calling William Hague the greatest living Yorkshireman was more light-hearted.
The note, on 10 Downing Street paper, reads: ‘Forgive me! With so many legendary Yorkshiremen, how can a Prime Minister choose just one without getting into trouble?’ Cameron then offered a defence of Hague: ‘He has spent a few years at the crease… but I take your point!’ There’s no word of any prime ministerial correspondence with the contemporary cricketing contrarian, Kevin Pietersen.
Fingers start pointing at Ed's American guru
Irritation: Labour members are unhappy at the amount of money spent on David Axelrod, pictured
With the Tories down, you’d think Labour would be up. But not a bit of it. Instead, it is having its own Ukip-induced wobble about its leader’s electoral prospects.
What is most telling about this panic is that it includes some of those who had been staunch backers of Ed Miliband. One insider laments: ‘He’s talking to people but he isn’t listening.’
Labour’s great fear is it is losing touch with its traditional voters. There’s irritation at the money that has been heaped on the American strategist David Axelrod.
‘Why did we hire him?’ complains one normally loyal figure. ‘For the money, we could have got two or three really good people who understand our politics. It is all about the cultural obsession that people around Ed have with US politics.’
Those close to Miliband argue he deserves more credit for having ‘moved Labour on immigration’ before Ukip’s surge.
Meanwhile, Ukip, is confident the Labour vote is there for the taking. A senior member boasts: ‘Labour is in absolute peril from us. We’ve done a lot of damage to the Tories. But they’ve got a guy who looks like a Prime Minister.’
As for Labour, it has – in the words of one Miliband ally – ‘to knuckle down and do the job we didn’t do at conference of building momentum’. But if the party continues fretting about its leader, this isn’t going to happen.
Liberal Democrats at the heart of Government are warning that when George Osborne stands up to deliver the autumn statement on December 3, he’ll have to admit more than £25 billion of cuts are needed to close the deficit.
They argue that Osborne won’t be able to close this gap just through spending cuts. The real trouble will come if any further welfare cuts are announced. Allies of Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith feel that working age benefits have already been cut to the bone.
James Forsyth is the political editor of The SpectatorQuotes of the week
'I'm playing the ugly one': Laura Carmichael took her unglamorous Downton Abbey role with good humour
‘Something big is happening here. People want change – they have had enough of career politicians in three parties.’
Ukip leader Nigel Farage, after his party gained its first elected MP at the Clacton by-election.
‘Imagine spending a long evening in the pub listening to the single most miserable of your friends bitch about their colleagues.’
Sports writer Andy Bull’s verdict on cricket star Kevin Pietersen’s score-settling autobiography.
‘His No 10 was full of very beautiful girls, who were half in love with Tony, with Cherie following around with a scowl.’
The BBC’s former political editor Andrew Marr on ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair’s time in Downing Street.
‘We did threaten the eldest one – who’s 12 – with prison if he leaked anything.’
Great British Bake Off winner Nancy Birtwhistle reveals how she made sure her grandchildren kept her victory a secret.
'It was really funny opening the newspaper and reading the reviews and going, "Oh, I'm playing the ugly one".'
Actress Laura Carmichael - Lady Edith in Downton Abbey - on playing Lady Mary's less glamorous sister.
‘You have to be able to say it in a way that sounds simultaneously peeved, but also kind of stoically resigned, and at the same time smugly omniscient – almost pleased that your predictions have been fulfilled.’
Author Kate Fox on the proper way to say ‘Typical!’ – the ‘national catchphrase’ of the English.
‘Newsnight line-up tonight: Nick Clegg, French Prime Minister, Tracey Emin. My father is probably pouring himself a very strong drink.’
Comic Jack Whitehall predicts how his traditionalist father, ex-theatrical agent Michael, may be reacting to the post-Jeremy Paxman BBC current affairs show.
‘It’s not really about asking for the raise, but knowing and having faith that the system will actually give you the right raises as you go along.’
Microsoft boss Satya Nadella’s advice to women on asking for a pay rise. He later apologised.
‘There were five of us, it took us five days, and we didn’t finish it.’
Keira Knightley admits that she and fellow ‘codebreakers’ from the film The Imitation Game struggled with a quick crossword.
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Published: 00:47 GMT, 12 October 2014 | Updated: 00:48 GMT, 12 October 2014
David Cameron is in the fight of his political life. He heads to Rochester this week to lead the charge against Ukip and the Tory defector Mark Reckless ahead of the by-election there. Success here is absolutely critical to Cameron’s chances at the General Election.
In a sign of the concern at the top of the Tory Party about the situation, a Cabinet Minister warns: ‘If Reckless wins Rochester, there’ll be 46 names’, a reference to the process by which Tory MPs force a leadership contest.
These 46 names coming in would result in Cameron having to submit himself to a vote of no confidence by his MPs. This Cabinet member predicts: ‘Cameron would win. But it would be very damaging.’ Indeed, given Cameron is one of the Tories’ strongest assets, anything that weakens him could be fatal to the Party’s election prospects. Little wonder that another Cabinet Minister claims this by-election will be ‘one hell of a battle’.
Tory MPs took Thursday’s loss to Ukip with relative calm. But this won’t be the case if the Farage bandwagon turns into a steamroller. ‘If they take Rochester and Strood,’ a senior backbencher says, ‘a number of people will conclude they have a better chance of being re-elected as Ukip.’ Tory opponents share this view. One of the Ukip leader’s confidants tells me: ‘If we can win in Rochester, then the sky is the limit in terms of other people coming over.’
More defections and a leadership crisis would make it impossible for the Tories to achieve any kind of result next year. Long before his 50th birthday, Cameron’s political career would be over. This explains why his 48th birthday celebrations on Thursday were limited to a five-minute cup of tea and a slice of cake.
The Tories are planning to throw everything they’ve got at Rochester: Cabinet Ministers are preparing themselves for half a dozen visits each to the seat. The party favours a lengthy campaign; there is support for a late November date for the by-election.
They believe this will enable them to maximise their cash advantage, expose Reckless’s weakness as a candidate, and convince people there how much their vote matters. They also intend to play on the cost of what Reckless has done, pointing out his decision to force a by-election is costing local council taxpayers a quarter of a million pounds.
There isn’t, though, any certainty about this approach working. ‘We’re not confident about Rochester,’ one Downing Street figure tells me, while a senior figure in the Party’s election machine says: ‘We need to win it but whether we will…’ Ukip, by contrast, are crowing that the Tories’ initial campaigning there has ‘gone down very badly’.
Even Labour’s Ukip problem, exposed by the close result in Heywood and Middleton, isn’t giving the Tories any comfort. As one Minister laments: ‘They take Labour votes but our seats.’
However, the Tories do think that Labour, and more specifically its leader, can help them get out of jail. ‘Use Ed Miliband to beat Ukip – that’s the only strategy in town,’ declares one Downing Street insider. The Tories’ aim is to ram home the message that if you vote Farage, you’ll get Miliband in the belief that people will ultimately shy away from propelling the Labour leader to power. One Cabinet Minister is adamant that, ‘You’ve got to tell people what they’re voting for’.
The Tories’ research shows the more important that voters believe an election is, the more likely they are to back them. So, expect to see a rise in the rhetorical stakes.
Many on the Tory benches, though, are not convinced. There is irritation the leadership has let the problem get to this stage. A former minister remarks: ‘What really p***** me off is Cameron hasn’t controlled immigration – the one thing we could have done.’
Political earthquake: All eyes - and the vast resources of the Conservative party - will now turn to RochesterThere is even speculation in Whitehall that the Tories might try to act on this problem at this late stage. Intriguingly, a senior Lib Dem tells me they are bracing themselves for the Tories attempting something truly radical on the question of EU immigration.
In politics, all roads lead to Rochester. If Cameron can hold there, he is in with a fighting chance of staying Prime Minister next year. But if the purple tide sweeps up the Medway, then his hopes of a second term could be washed away.
The Prime Minister has been saying sorry a lot recently. But while his apology to the Queen for revealing their private conversations must have been excruciating, his one to Geoffrey Boycott for calling William Hague the greatest living Yorkshireman was more light-hearted.
The note, on 10 Downing Street paper, reads: ‘Forgive me! With so many legendary Yorkshiremen, how can a Prime Minister choose just one without getting into trouble?’ Cameron then offered a defence of Hague: ‘He has spent a few years at the crease… but I take your point!’ There’s no word of any prime ministerial correspondence with the contemporary cricketing contrarian, Kevin Pietersen.
Fingers start pointing at Ed's American guru
Irritation: Labour members are unhappy at the amount of money spent on David Axelrod, picturedWith the Tories down, you’d think Labour would be up. But not a bit of it. Instead, it is having its own Ukip-induced wobble about its leader’s electoral prospects.
What is most telling about this panic is that it includes some of those who had been staunch backers of Ed Miliband. One insider laments: ‘He’s talking to people but he isn’t listening.’
Labour’s great fear is it is losing touch with its traditional voters. There’s irritation at the money that has been heaped on the American strategist David Axelrod.
‘Why did we hire him?’ complains one normally loyal figure. ‘For the money, we could have got two or three really good people who understand our politics. It is all about the cultural obsession that people around Ed have with US politics.’
Those close to Miliband argue he deserves more credit for having ‘moved Labour on immigration’ before Ukip’s surge.
Meanwhile, Ukip, is confident the Labour vote is there for the taking. A senior member boasts: ‘Labour is in absolute peril from us. We’ve done a lot of damage to the Tories. But they’ve got a guy who looks like a Prime Minister.’
As for Labour, it has – in the words of one Miliband ally – ‘to knuckle down and do the job we didn’t do at conference of building momentum’. But if the party continues fretting about its leader, this isn’t going to happen.
Liberal Democrats at the heart of Government are warning that when George Osborne stands up to deliver the autumn statement on December 3, he’ll have to admit more than £25 billion of cuts are needed to close the deficit.
They argue that Osborne won’t be able to close this gap just through spending cuts. The real trouble will come if any further welfare cuts are announced. Allies of Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith feel that working age benefits have already been cut to the bone.
James Forsyth is the political editor of The SpectatorQuotes of the week
‘Something big is happening here. People want change – they have had enough of career politicians in three parties.’
Ukip leader Nigel Farage, after his party gained its first elected MP at the Clacton by-election.
‘Imagine spending a long evening in the pub listening to the single most miserable of your friends bitch about their colleagues.’
Sports writer Andy Bull’s verdict on cricket star Kevin Pietersen’s score-settling autobiography.
‘His No 10 was full of very beautiful girls, who were half in love with Tony, with Cherie following around with a scowl.’
The BBC’s former political editor Andrew Marr on ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair’s time in Downing Street.
‘We did threaten the eldest one – who’s 12 – with prison if he leaked anything.’
Great British Bake Off winner Nancy Birtwhistle reveals how she made sure her grandchildren kept her victory a secret.
'It was really funny opening the newspaper and reading the reviews and going, "Oh, I'm playing the ugly one".'
Actress Laura Carmichael - Lady Edith in Downton Abbey - on playing Lady Mary's less glamorous sister.
‘You have to be able to say it in a way that sounds simultaneously peeved, but also kind of stoically resigned, and at the same time smugly omniscient – almost pleased that your predictions have been fulfilled.’
Author Kate Fox on the proper way to say ‘Typical!’ – the ‘national catchphrase’ of the English.
‘Newsnight line-up tonight: Nick Clegg, French Prime Minister, Tracey Emin. My father is probably pouring himself a very strong drink.’
Comic Jack Whitehall predicts how his traditionalist father, ex-theatrical agent Michael, may be reacting to the post-Jeremy Paxman BBC current affairs show.
‘It’s not really about asking for the raise, but knowing and having faith that the system will actually give you the right raises as you go along.’
Microsoft boss Satya Nadella’s advice to women on asking for a pay rise. He later apologised.
‘There were five of us, it took us five days, and we didn’t finish it.’
Keira Knightley admits that she and fellow ‘codebreakers’ from the film The Imitation Game struggled with a quick crossword.
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