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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday

Published: 00:06 GMT, 7 December 2014 | Updated: 01:34 GMT, 7 December 2014

It is a pretty rum state of affairs when the Chancellor’s mother turns up to the Autumn Statement, but the Deputy Prime Minister does not.

Not that the Tories were that bothered – in fact they’re delighted by the snub.

Nick Clegg’s absence has, they think, left the way clear for them to grab all the credit for the economic recovery.


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Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg was absent from the Chancellor's Autumn Statement, something Lib Dems now admit was a mistake as it made him look like he was trying to distance himself from the Government Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg was absent from the Chancellor's Autumn Statement, something Lib Dems now admit was a mistake as it made him look like he was trying to distance himself from the Government

As one Tory Cabinet Minister close to the Chancellor crows: ‘The Lib Dems have played an OK hand, badly.’

In Downing Street, they think Wednesday’s ‘Where’s Cleggy?’ has exposed a ‘sense of flakiness’ about the Lib Dems. And, following on from Vince Cable’s letter to the Office for Budget Responsibility distancing his party from the cuts to come, it has revealed a split in their ranks.

One senior source excitedly claims that the Lib Dem ‘principals split three ways. One attacks the strategy, one flees and only one sticks doggedly to it’ – a reference to Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who sat beside Osborne on Wednesday.

Even senior Lib Dems now admit that Clegg’s decision to play hooky was a mistake; that it made him look as if he was trying to distance himself from the Government of which he is a part.

Clegg’s absence was all the more striking because economic policy is the one of the few areas on which the coalition has remained united. As one Tory Cabinet Minister wryly observes: ‘The love affair has gone cold. But the couple were staying together for the deficit. Even that is now fractured.’

Osborne will spend much of this week up North, pushing his plan for a ‘Northern Powerhouse’. But Tory MPs in marginal seats will be out on the doorstep, promoting the projects that Osborne – ever the political tactician – has sent their way. Last week, these MPs sounded like children on Christmas morning as they excitedly compared notes on whether they’d got a road improvement or a flood defence scheme from the Chancellor’s spending sack.

Team Osborne are confident they can win the argument about the ‘colossal cuts’ to come after the Election. They plan to do this, in part, by opening up a new front on welfare. One member of his brains trust tells me: ‘We want more cuts in welfare than spending cuts from departments.’ Team Osborne are confident they can win the argument about the ‘colossal cuts’ to come after the Election. They plan to do this, in part, by opening up a new front on welfare. One member of his brains trust tells me: ‘We want more cuts in welfare than spending cuts from departments.’

Team Osborne are confident they can win the argument about the ‘colossal cuts’ to come after the Election. They plan to do this, in part, by opening up a new front on welfare. One member of his brains trust tells me: ‘We want more cuts in welfare than spending cuts from departments.’

And they don’t need to reduce spending as much as people think. They are not, contrary to what the Office for Budget Responsibility says, committed to running a £23billion surplus by the end of the next parliament.

Rather, once the budget is balanced, they will begin to increase spending in line with inflation. Furthermore, the cuts will be easier to achieve than the doom-mongers claim.

For instance, Whitehall sources say the Government will be able to save around £4 billion on IT contracts alone in the next five years. Labour, however, think it’s open season on attacking the Tories for what one of those closest to Miliband describes as ‘ideological savagery’. They calculate that, while the public might tolerate spending cuts where necessary, it won’t accept anything that smacks of a political desire to shrink the State.

David Cameron wants to make the next Election a choice between ‘competence and chaos’. But if he is to do that, the Tories are going to have to show some discipline in the next five months. There can be no more unforced errors and no more dancing to the other parties’ tunes.

Monday night was the start of the Tory party season.

MPs crammed themselves into a parliamentary meeting room to celebrate the birthday of Government Whip Therese Coffey. With the aid of a karaoke machine and some disco balls, Michael Gove led the way with a rendition of I’ve Got You Babe with rising star Claire Perry, right, and Cheryl Gillan.

With the aid of a karaoke machine and some disco balls, Michael Gove led the way with a rendition of I’ve Got You Babe with rising star Claire Perry, pictured above With the aid of a karaoke machine and some disco balls, Michael Gove led the way with a rendition of I’ve Got You Babe with rising star Claire Perry, pictured above

The Chief Whip’s decision to take up the microphone reassured the ambitious there was no harm in joining in.

Liz Truss, the youngest ever female Tory Cabinet Minister, did Last Christmas, while Old Etonian Kwasi Kwarteng belted out Thriller. However, the show was stolen by solicitor general Robert Buckland’s medley of Frank Sinatra hits. But I’m told none of the singing MPs should give up the day job just yet.

The normal prize in the office Christmas raffle might be a bottle of whisky, say, or some M&S vouchers. But not at the Cabinet Office.

At a party there on Thursday, first prize was to be flown to Paris in a private plane for lunch. But this is not just any old private plane, it’s one piloted by Government Minister and Tory Chairman Grant Shapps.

Tories? Private planes? Paris? Before you phone the ‘we’re all in it together’ hotline, it turns out the prospect of a flight for a slap-up meal raised twice as much for the Samaritans as last year’s raffle.

Shapps, who donated the prize, is also considered to be a very good Samaritan indeed, having worked with the charity for more than a decade, recruiting dozens of volunteers.

The only downside for the lucky winner is that there’s a danger that lunch may turn out to be le Big Mac rather than la grande bouffe. Shapps has a notorious weakness for fast food.

Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, is to come under intense political pressure to approve the extension of a grammar school in Kent. One Downing Street source tells me: ‘The last thing we want is a row about grammar schools in Kent, where Nigel Farage is standing and Ukip has a seat.’

Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, is to come under intense political pressure to approve the extension of a grammar school in Kent Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, is to come under intense political pressure to approve the extension of a grammar school in Kent

An application to open the grammar school annexe in Sevenoaks was rejected by Morgan’s predecessor Michael Gove because it did not comply with the rules – it appeared to be a new school rather than an extension of the existing one. However, I understand the new submission is considered to be on far stronger legal ground. If Morgan rejects this proposal, senior Tories fear it will spark a return of the party’s grammar school wars months before the General Election – a gift for Ukip, which is committed to bringing back grammar schools across the country.

Whatever decision Morgan takes is almost certain to be judicially reviewed by either opponents or supporters of the school. But the symbolism of her choice will be immensely important. For that reason, there is a growing expectation in Whitehall that Morgan will give this extension the go-ahead.

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