Wednesday, February 25, 2015
By James Forsyth for The Mail on Sunday
Published: 01:58 GMT, 30 November 2014 | Updated: 23:33 GMT, 13 December 2014
David Cameron has brought in blunt Australian strategist Lynton Crosby, pictured, to manage his Election campaign on issues voters care about
Lynton Crosby’s view of politics is as direct as the man himself.
The blunt Australian strategist brought in by David Cameron to run the Election campaign believes that parties should stick to the issues that voters really care about and on which they are most trusted.
In days gone by, immigration would have featured prominently in this list for the Tories. But not any more.
Significantly, Ministers and senior figures in Downing Street talk about Cameron’s combative speech on Friday as an attempt to shut down the issue rather than talk it up.
A Minister close to the Prime Minister told me directly after the speech that immigration was ‘never going to be a selling point’ for the Tories in 2015 and the best they could hope for now was to stop ‘haemorrhaging’ votes to Ukip.
This is a remarkable admission, and one you couldn’t imagine a Tory Minister making even at the start of this coalition. But last week’s net migration figures – the equivalent of a town slightly larger than Aberdeen moving to the UK in the past 12 months – have taken their toll.
Indeed, the Tories are acutely aware that the voters who are most passionate about the subject are the hardest to reach – as they cannot compete with Ukip’s policy of simply leaving the European Union to regain control of Britain’s borders.
This is why Downing Street sources are stressing that the party won’t be campaigning on the issue in the coming months.
One well-placed figure says: ‘The Prime Minister is very clear –that’s it on immigration, don’t expect him to say any more.’
BUT inside Number 10 there is recognition that the immigration issue has been mishandled in recent weeks.
Part of the problem was that the Tory leadership falsely raised the hopes of hardline Eurosceptic backbenchers that Cameron was going to challenge the whole principle of EU free movement. But as one senior figure explains: ‘The more you looked at a cap, the more you realised it was not easy to deliver.’
And for all the finger-jabbing, the Tory leadership had no stomach for a full-on confrontation with the rest of the EU. George Osborne feared that doing this would alienate business at home as well as allies abroad.
Revealingly, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Ed Llewellyn, an old Brussels hand, took charge of the speech-writing process.
Downing Street’s calculation was that they could appear to be aggressive – even hint they were prepared to walk away from the EU – safe in the knowledge that they wouldn’t have to as they had a realistic chance of getting European agreement to their relatively modest proposals.
What the Tories really want to talk about is the economy. And their new message is: ‘Stay on course for prosperity.’
Downing Street sources are stressing the Tories won’t be campaigning on immigration in the coming months.
This is another sign of Crosby’s influence as the slogan is borrowed from the recent election campaign of the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, which was run by Crosby’s business partner Mark Textor.
This Autumn Statement will be the last fiscal act of the Coalition – the Lib Dems are adamant that next year’s Budget is too close to the Election for the parties to do anything substantive together. But, I’m told, ‘you won’t see any overall giveaway’ on Wednesday. Instead, the Autumn Statement will focus on the tough choices ahead. There will be more money for the NHS.
But Osborne will stress that this is only possible because of the Government’s economic discipline, though the fact the deficit is barely coming down is a reminder that the Government hasn’t been as fiscally virtuous as its rhetoric suggests.
There’ll also be an emphasis on road building, with one Cabinet Minister predicting an ‘unseemly scramble’ between Cameron and Nick Clegg to claim credit for improvements to the A303, which runs through a slew of Tory and Lib Dem marginal constituencies. Indeed, with Osborne being a thoroughly political Chancellor, there will be lots in the Autumn Statement for the marginal seats that will determine who wins the next Election.
Osborne, who has been writing his speech this weekend, will strike a surprisingly downbeat tone on Wednesday. He wants to emphasise to voters the risks abroad. As one of his allies puts it: ‘We want to draw more attention to the fact we’re doing well, while others are doing badly.’
But the real political challenge for Osborne is to wrest back control of the national agenda. For if everyone carries on talking about immigration, the man whose Christmas has come early will be Nigel Farage.
Tory Target: Ukip candidate Tim Aker
Are things turning nasty in Thurrock?
Politics is getting increasingly ugly. One example is a Tory leaflet in Thurrock, Essex, that calls Tim Aker, Ukip’s candidate there, ‘Timür Aker’ in what, to me, seems a clear attempt to remind voters of his Turkish roots.
This appears to be a cheap tactic, seeing as Aker is known by all – and refers to himself – as Tim. It seems clear what these Tories were trying to do, and it is worthy of nothing but contempt. The Tories won’t beat Ukip – locally or nationally – by diving headfirst into the gutter.
Theresa May had plenty of cracks about Ukip and Labour when she presented the awards at The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year lunch on Thursday. But there were also jibes at the expense of two Tories – Boris Johnson and George Osborne.
May, who never does anything by chance, teased Boris about his expensive Islington home and the Chancellor about his new hairdresser. I understand that when Boris, who was on a trip to Singapore, heard about the laughter at his expense, he was less than amused.
It is, one suspects, not a coincidence that these two are May’s most likely opponents in any future Tory leadership contest. It was the surest sign yet that the boys won’t have it all their own way when it comes to filling Cameron’s shoes.
‘Plebs.’
Andrew Mitchell’s denial that he used this word to describe police (a High Court judge has decided he did) led to one resignation, four sackings, nine arrests, one jail sentence, two libel cases and a £3 million legal bill.
‘My regret is not tipping him over the rail when I had the chance.’
Michael Buerk confesses to his I’m A Celebrity camp-mates that he wishes he had dealt with Jimmy Savile when they were both guests on the QE2.
Eva Mendes is exhausted not by partying - but by the demands of her baby daughter Esmerelda
'I thought my wild nights were over but these are some of the wildest nights I've ever had.'
Hollywood star Eva Mendes says that she is completely exhausted not by partying - but by the demands of her baby daughter Esmerelda.
‘Facebook have my brother’s blood on their hands.’
Lee Rigby’s sister Sara McClure, after an inquiry revealed the tech giant failed to report an exchange in which one of his killers boasted of wanting to murder a soldier.
‘I had to explain to my kid that Santa doesn’t usually smoke and drink, and neither will he use foul language when he visits us.’
Rich Lee, after visiting a Christmas wonderland – the attraction was later closed following complaints by families.
‘I know I did my job right.’
Missouri police officer Darren Wilson defends his actions during the fatal shooting of black teenager Michael Brown.
‘I’m a fraud. I sit there judging Michelin-star chefs… could I do it? No!’
Food writer Prue Leith admits she’s not really in a position to criticise the dishes of top chefs.
‘London is to the billionaire as the jungles of Sumatra are to the orang-utan.’
London Mayor Boris Johnson boasts that the capital has more super-rich residents than Paris or New York.
‘Alcohol dependence is being treated like a lifestyle choice like Armani jeans rather than as a disease.’
Liver expert Sir Ian Gilmore warns that too many middle-class people are not taking seriously their excessive drinking habit.
‘I wake up at 2am and think, “Did I put carrots on the list?” ’
Mariella Frostrup says her anxiety attacks have been brought on by the menopause.
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Published: 01:58 GMT, 30 November 2014 | Updated: 23:33 GMT, 13 December 2014
David Cameron has brought in blunt Australian strategist Lynton Crosby, pictured, to manage his Election campaign on issues voters care aboutLynton Crosby’s view of politics is as direct as the man himself.
The blunt Australian strategist brought in by David Cameron to run the Election campaign believes that parties should stick to the issues that voters really care about and on which they are most trusted.
In days gone by, immigration would have featured prominently in this list for the Tories. But not any more.
Significantly, Ministers and senior figures in Downing Street talk about Cameron’s combative speech on Friday as an attempt to shut down the issue rather than talk it up.
A Minister close to the Prime Minister told me directly after the speech that immigration was ‘never going to be a selling point’ for the Tories in 2015 and the best they could hope for now was to stop ‘haemorrhaging’ votes to Ukip.
This is a remarkable admission, and one you couldn’t imagine a Tory Minister making even at the start of this coalition. But last week’s net migration figures – the equivalent of a town slightly larger than Aberdeen moving to the UK in the past 12 months – have taken their toll.
Indeed, the Tories are acutely aware that the voters who are most passionate about the subject are the hardest to reach – as they cannot compete with Ukip’s policy of simply leaving the European Union to regain control of Britain’s borders.
This is why Downing Street sources are stressing that the party won’t be campaigning on the issue in the coming months.
One well-placed figure says: ‘The Prime Minister is very clear –that’s it on immigration, don’t expect him to say any more.’
BUT inside Number 10 there is recognition that the immigration issue has been mishandled in recent weeks.
Part of the problem was that the Tory leadership falsely raised the hopes of hardline Eurosceptic backbenchers that Cameron was going to challenge the whole principle of EU free movement. But as one senior figure explains: ‘The more you looked at a cap, the more you realised it was not easy to deliver.’
And for all the finger-jabbing, the Tory leadership had no stomach for a full-on confrontation with the rest of the EU. George Osborne feared that doing this would alienate business at home as well as allies abroad.
Revealingly, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Ed Llewellyn, an old Brussels hand, took charge of the speech-writing process.
Downing Street’s calculation was that they could appear to be aggressive – even hint they were prepared to walk away from the EU – safe in the knowledge that they wouldn’t have to as they had a realistic chance of getting European agreement to their relatively modest proposals.
What the Tories really want to talk about is the economy. And their new message is: ‘Stay on course for prosperity.’
Downing Street sources are stressing the Tories won’t be campaigning on immigration in the coming months.This is another sign of Crosby’s influence as the slogan is borrowed from the recent election campaign of the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, which was run by Crosby’s business partner Mark Textor.
This Autumn Statement will be the last fiscal act of the Coalition – the Lib Dems are adamant that next year’s Budget is too close to the Election for the parties to do anything substantive together. But, I’m told, ‘you won’t see any overall giveaway’ on Wednesday. Instead, the Autumn Statement will focus on the tough choices ahead. There will be more money for the NHS.
But Osborne will stress that this is only possible because of the Government’s economic discipline, though the fact the deficit is barely coming down is a reminder that the Government hasn’t been as fiscally virtuous as its rhetoric suggests.
There’ll also be an emphasis on road building, with one Cabinet Minister predicting an ‘unseemly scramble’ between Cameron and Nick Clegg to claim credit for improvements to the A303, which runs through a slew of Tory and Lib Dem marginal constituencies. Indeed, with Osborne being a thoroughly political Chancellor, there will be lots in the Autumn Statement for the marginal seats that will determine who wins the next Election.
Osborne, who has been writing his speech this weekend, will strike a surprisingly downbeat tone on Wednesday. He wants to emphasise to voters the risks abroad. As one of his allies puts it: ‘We want to draw more attention to the fact we’re doing well, while others are doing badly.’
But the real political challenge for Osborne is to wrest back control of the national agenda. For if everyone carries on talking about immigration, the man whose Christmas has come early will be Nigel Farage.
Tory Target: Ukip candidate Tim Aker Are things turning nasty in Thurrock?
Politics is getting increasingly ugly. One example is a Tory leaflet in Thurrock, Essex, that calls Tim Aker, Ukip’s candidate there, ‘Timür Aker’ in what, to me, seems a clear attempt to remind voters of his Turkish roots.
This appears to be a cheap tactic, seeing as Aker is known by all – and refers to himself – as Tim. It seems clear what these Tories were trying to do, and it is worthy of nothing but contempt. The Tories won’t beat Ukip – locally or nationally – by diving headfirst into the gutter.
Theresa May had plenty of cracks about Ukip and Labour when she presented the awards at The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year lunch on Thursday. But there were also jibes at the expense of two Tories – Boris Johnson and George Osborne.
May, who never does anything by chance, teased Boris about his expensive Islington home and the Chancellor about his new hairdresser. I understand that when Boris, who was on a trip to Singapore, heard about the laughter at his expense, he was less than amused.
It is, one suspects, not a coincidence that these two are May’s most likely opponents in any future Tory leadership contest. It was the surest sign yet that the boys won’t have it all their own way when it comes to filling Cameron’s shoes.
‘Plebs.’
Andrew Mitchell’s denial that he used this word to describe police (a High Court judge has decided he did) led to one resignation, four sackings, nine arrests, one jail sentence, two libel cases and a £3 million legal bill.
‘My regret is not tipping him over the rail when I had the chance.’
Michael Buerk confesses to his I’m A Celebrity camp-mates that he wishes he had dealt with Jimmy Savile when they were both guests on the QE2.
Eva Mendes is exhausted not by partying - but by the demands of her baby daughter Esmerelda'I thought my wild nights were over but these are some of the wildest nights I've ever had.'
Hollywood star Eva Mendes says that she is completely exhausted not by partying - but by the demands of her baby daughter Esmerelda.
‘Facebook have my brother’s blood on their hands.’
Lee Rigby’s sister Sara McClure, after an inquiry revealed the tech giant failed to report an exchange in which one of his killers boasted of wanting to murder a soldier.
‘I had to explain to my kid that Santa doesn’t usually smoke and drink, and neither will he use foul language when he visits us.’
Rich Lee, after visiting a Christmas wonderland – the attraction was later closed following complaints by families.
‘I know I did my job right.’
Missouri police officer Darren Wilson defends his actions during the fatal shooting of black teenager Michael Brown.
‘I’m a fraud. I sit there judging Michelin-star chefs… could I do it? No!’
Food writer Prue Leith admits she’s not really in a position to criticise the dishes of top chefs.
‘London is to the billionaire as the jungles of Sumatra are to the orang-utan.’
London Mayor Boris Johnson boasts that the capital has more super-rich residents than Paris or New York.
‘Alcohol dependence is being treated like a lifestyle choice like Armani jeans rather than as a disease.’
Liver expert Sir Ian Gilmore warns that too many middle-class people are not taking seriously their excessive drinking habit.
‘I wake up at 2am and think, “Did I put carrots on the list?” ’
Mariella Frostrup says her anxiety attacks have been brought on by the menopause.
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