American Election 2012: Here we go, but be warned: we are only just beginning

By Charlie Wolf for the Daily Mail
Updated: 20:23 GMT, 27 December 2011

There has been a brief Christmas pause from campaigning in the United States - but unlike the U.K. and Europe with Boxing day and bank holidays, the pause has been short. Candidates were home with families over Christmas and whilst campaign ads continued to air they were seasonal and featuring wives and families.

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Now with just a week to go until the Iowa Caucus and two weeks until the all important New Hampshire Primary, the candidates are back to work in earnest.

Iowa and her caucus system is a state that demands what is known as retail politics: getting out, meeting people, shaking hands and getting the message over on a one-to-one basis. It is slow, hard work, with demanding long hours and little promise.

Challenge: The 2012 race for the White House is already underway

For all the thirty some debates, come-and-go putative front runners (which has been just about all of them at some point), all that we have witnessed so far has just been a preview to the Republican Presidential Primary.

In many respects, nothing up to now has mattered, other than being a pre-requisite course, possibly a form of entry hazing for just the right to run. Next week is the Iowa Caucus and it all finally starts.

The U.S. system, with her electoral college and primary system, may be hard enough for outsiders to fathom but it is nothing compared to the caucus system.

A caucus is not an election. The first election, where votes are cast over a full day (or beforehand by absentee or postal votes) is in New Hampshire a week after Iowa.

All that is required in an election is to show up and mark your ballot. Depending on the state, a primary may be closed (only to registered party members) or open (any and all registered voters in a state) may vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries - or both. This year, with an unchallenged, incumbent president, there will be no Democratic primaries.

This year, with an unchallenged, incumbent president, there will be no Democratic primaries

This may help by focusing attention on the Republican field, or possibly hurt the Republicans by the fact that there will not be as much attention overall in the primary system until the National Party (Republican and Democratic) nominating conventions at the end of August.

To caucus is to meet together, and is different from an election. First, it is closed to members of the party, it takes place in the eventing and those who are caucusing need to attend on the day. There are no postal votes or absentee ballots; the weather can affect the outcome.

People in Iowa caucus or meet together at designated locations, schools, church halls, or local homes. There are 1,784 precincts in Iowa and each one has a caucus. Each caucus delegate goes on to one of 99 county conventions and those delegates eventually go on to the state convention and pick delegates to the national conventions.

At the caucus meeting each candidate, or their representative, is given a short period of time to make a statement or campaign pitch. In the Republican party each participant goes on to cast his or her own vote by secret ballot after being given a blank piece of paper to write in a name. Some precincts do use pre-printed ballots or even just a show of hands. The non-binding results are then tabulated and reported to the state party who then release the results to the media.

By the way, if this all sounds confusing so far, I haven't even gone into the rules the Democrats use. Briefly, their system requires people to go into designated corners of a room for each candidate, then there is time for delegates to try and convince others in the room to move to their corner. After that, the candidate with the least support is kicked out and they do it all again in a sort of electoral hokey-cokey. It almost makes a hereditary system sound so easy and uncomplicated!

The Iowa caucus is the first event in the political primary process which gives it, and the people of Iowa, incredible exposure. The world will beat a path to Iowa over the year prior to the caucus and this coming week there will be no escape in Iowa from the politicians, activists, news media and round the clock political TV and radio advertisement.

Barack Obama won in Iowa with a very left wing, anti-war approach

It's a great boost for the Iowa economy and can enhance the prospects for a surprise winning outsider on the national stage. Remember up until now, even with all the debate exposure, many Americans have not been following the process and for some candidates this will be the first major public exposure they receive.

But Iowa also has it's faults. The caucus system is geared to the hardcore party activist, not the general voter. Barack Obama (though he went on to win the eventual nomination and then the presidency) won in Iowa with a very left wing, anti-war approach that played to the state's active liberal caucus participants. It was only by successfully changing tact, to the centre, that gave him the presidential election. Iowa does not give an indication of what the general voter is thinking.

Polls are giving Ron Paul a slight edge (a statistical tie) with Mitt Romney, then trailing in third is Newt Gingrich. But, polls are hard to read going into a caucus as many can and do make up their minds on the night after a two-three hour process. I would not be surprised to see Paul win this; he plays to the hardcore, tea party, small party conservative purist. Paul holds some unbelievably wacky ideas on foreign policy, drug laws and as an isolationist. But he wins over the public- at this stage - by being in tune with an overriding issue of economic conservatism.

Success? Michelle Bachmann may also be a surprise

His following is small but zealous. Bad weather that may prevent lukewarm Romney supporters from taking a couple of hours out of their evening will not deter a Ron Paul supporter.

Michelle Bachmann may also be a surprise. Iowa is not necessarily about winning, but doing what  - or better than - the public expects. Iowa can give a candidate some "Joe" as in joe-mentum (momentum) and much needed media spotlight but a presidential run is a marathon, not a sprint. New Hampshire (which Romney is set to win) and South Carolina can be more indicative of how the race will turn out.

The Iowa caucus may have the effect of weeding out some of the political deadwood but I would not use it as a bell-weather for picking the eventual nomination. This year in particular, with the plethora of debates we've had, Iowa will probably have less significance than prior years.

But as part of the political calendar, the fun and excitement that is a U.S. Presidential election, leading right up to election night, Iowa is part of the process - an important part as the staring gate for the whole race. It all starts here, Iowa, in one week.

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