Wednesday, February 18, 2015
By Nigel Jones for the Daily Mail
Published: 14:09 GMT, 24 April 2012 | Updated: 15:08 GMT, 24 April 2012I have just returned from a nine day swing through my favourite foreign country, France. Apart from the pleasures of wolfing down a dozen escargots, relishing a bottle of good crisp cheap Burgundy, or the more melancholy joy of slurping up an octet of oysters while looking out of a window on Omaha beach and a rain-lashed Normandy Channel, I was expecting to find the place engulfed in election fever. Alas, no such luck.
The overwhelming mood, at least among those French people that I spoke to, was one of bitter, cynical apathy. Everyone hated President Sarkozy as an absurd and jumped-up little egomaniac suffering a severe case of small man syndrome, were genially derisive of his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande, aka 'Monsieur Flanby' - a popular brand of wobbly caramel pudding; - and knew that Marine Le Pen, while a feisty challenger to the status quo, had no chance of making it through the gates of the Elysee Palace.
Hope fading: Nicolas Sarkozy's re-election votes are pinned on winning votes of six million who backed Marine Le Pen in first roundBut now that the first round of the election is over, we can see more clearly the lie of the land and take a stab at predicting the outcome of the final shoot-out next month. Barring accidents, the numbers stack up for Hollande. To add to the 28% he already has in the bag, Hollande will be able to count on the votes of a ragbag of Leftists, raging from old style Communists - still a stubbornly strong factor in France - to Greens, and a bunch of far-out Trotskyist loons. Sarko, by contrast only has the 20% who voted for Le Pen's National Front - but many, if not most of them, (including Le Pen herself) hate the incumbent like poison, and would even prefer Hollande. Besides, if Sarkozy tacks too far to the Right in a bid to woo Le Pen's people, he will alienate the centrists who might otherwise support him.
Race: Francois Hollande is set to become the first socialist French president for 17 yearsOf course there is always the possibility of the quick witted Sarkozy pulling off a victory in the TV debates with his desperately dull opponent, or an untoward incident like the recent terrorist shootings in Toulouse giving him the opportunity to strut his stuff as a strong Head of State; but it has to be said that at the moment the odds favour Hollande. The prospect has thrown Europe's money markets into a set of the jitters as wobbly as Hollande's ballooning waistband, but here are six good reasons why we in Britain - especially those of us who devoutly wish for the downfall of the increasingly sinister EU - should welcome a Socialist win with quiet satisfaction.
1) It will derail Merkozy
Ever since the Eurozone crisis burst, the odd couple who are Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Sarkozy have formed a duo driving the European 'project' towards greater European integration and blind faith in the disintegrating Euro. So anxious was Merkel for her partner in crime to stay in office that she trampled on diplomatic precedent and openly rooted for Sarkozy. The unprecedented electoral defeat of a French President after just one term will demonstrate how unpopular with the voters the Merkozy strategy is.
The defeat of Sarkozy would derail Merkozy - which may demonstrate how unpopular the Merkozy strategy is2) It will annoy the Germans
The evidence that Europe's electorates are rejecting the harsh prescriptions for their economic and political future cooked up in Brussels and laid down by Berlin may make the Germans think twice about laying down the law and dictating terms (not to mention pouring money) - to an increasingly restive Europe. This return to reality can only be a good thing.
3) Socialism inevitably messes up
If Hollande is serious about his plans to spend his way out of the crisis it can only be by borrowing money that the country cannot afford to prob up a bloated and unaffordable welfare state. The example of the Blair-Brown fiasco created by his British Socialist counterparts should give him pause - but may not. Evidently the French haven't yet learned that Socialism doesn't work.
4) Infantile Leftism is what the French do best
Ever since their bloody revolution in 1789, France has been characterised by kneejerk radicalism that has brought the country repeated bouts of instability and little joy. Since then France has had no fewer than five republics, two Imperial dictatorships, two returns of the monarchy, and five foreign military occupations (1814, 1815, 1870-71, 1914-18; 1940-44).
Doubts: The strong chance of a Hollande victory has thrown Europe's money markets into a set of the jitters5) The Brain Drain will benefit us
London is already awash with French companies and professionals in exile from the high taxes prevalent in Paris. The punitive soak the rich policies promised by Hollande will turn this drain of French brains, talent and cash into a flood - to the great benefit of British business. Previous waves of French immigrants in flight from their homeland - eg. the Huguenot Protestants and the post-1789 emigres - have enriched this country. Those fleeing Hollande will do so again.
6) This could bring the Euro crisis to a head
If Sarkozy gets back, the inevitable crisis and implosion of the Euro will be pushed further down the road, making the crash, when it comes, that much worse. A Hollande victory - along with other straws in the wind such as the Spanish economic catastrophe, next month's elections in Greece, and the collapse of the Dutch Government - could well be the straw that breaks the Euro camel's back. Anyway, that is what those of us who wish for such an outcome must devoutly wish for.
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