New Hampshire primary: Hovering pencils and early poll results

By Charlie Wolf for the Daily Mail
Updated: 13:10 GMT, 10 January 2012

The polls in New Hampshire don't open for at least another couple of hours but the first results are in.

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The tiny town of Dixville Notch (population 75) is famous for their first in the nation votes at midnight. Last night they met as usual and with just nine people voting, it didn't take too long to tabulate the results. Mormon candidates, Mitt Romney and John Huntsman both received two votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) each received 1 vote. Of Democrats voting, President Obama received all three votes cast.

Meanwhile, down the road in the small town of Hart's Location, who also vote just after midnight, traditionally second after the Dixville Notch, Mitt Romney received 5 votes, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) received 4, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman received 2, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich each secured one vote. Rick Santorum did not receive any votes in these two ballots.

Ballot box: Dixville Notch claims to have been the first place to vote in every election since 1960

The fact is, going into the New Hampshire Primary today, most members of the Granite State do not know how they are going to vote. They like to take their time and will listen to all the candidates before making up their minds. Though Mitt Romney goes in, according to polls, as the favourite, a large portion of voters have not yet decided who to vote for.

I call it the hovering pencil effect. It is that final moment, when an actual choice, a decision is made. When a voter or a consumer, knows they have to make that final choice and live with its consequences.

In New Hampshire today the pencil will hover thus: Either it will land on the name of who the voter thinks will beat Barack Obama (Romney) or which of the other candidates the voter thinks will best reflect their conservative views to be the challenger to Mitt Romney.

In the lead: Mitt Romney is ahead in the New Hampshire primary by two votes after midnight voting

In the end the decision will be down to who they think can beat Mitt Romney or who they think can beat Barack Obama. In this case, the latter will probably win out and Romney will take New Hampshire.

As to the rest of the field, it could go a number of ways. Aside from Romney, I expect voters to split sharply to the left or the right. This is a semi-open primary, that means only Republicans or independents can vote. Declared Democrats will also have a primary today, but one name is on that ballot, Mr. Obama. Voters can change their party preference, allowing many Democrats to vote in the Republican primary.

The left leaning, John Huntsman will appeal to many Democratically leaning independents and he could place in the top three, even though he is not polling well at present. Those that split to the right, the independent, small government minded Granite Staters who whose 'Live Free or Die' state motto resonates with the fiscal small government message of Ron Paul will go to him.

The conundrum for the Republican Party is that after New Hampshire, the two challengers to Mitt Romney in Place and Show are the two candidates that would never be able to win the nomination.

Watch where the herd of voters go.

If Mitt Romney does disastrously, losing New Hampshire to one of the others, or wins by far less a margin than expected this contest will go on for some time. If he is the clear winner then he could wrap up the nomination by March.

The problem for Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum is there are too many (along with Huntsman and Paul) fighting for the choice as clear challenger to Romney. Polls show that Santorum did not get much of a bump from his Iowa win in New Hampshire. The issue here is the economy, not gay marriage.

At present with so many candidates fighting for the same challenger's spot, the field looks crowded, muddy and muddled; like thirty thoroughbreds at the Grand National all heading for Becher's Brook at the same time. Unless there are some fallers and the field is winnowed, there is no way one of them can gain enough votes to decently challenge Mitt Romney. All they are doing at present is needlessly sniping at each other and at Romney's heels, attacking of all things, Romney's use of the free market capitalist system that. That, in the end does not help get Barack Obama out of office.

Hovering pencil effect: It is that final moment, when an actual decision is made that matters

For the race to continue with some meaning one or two needs to fall on their sword. Romney looks so far the most presidential and most able to beat Obama. Challenge him yes, but weakening with silly and small-minded slings and arrows about Bain Capital accomplishes nothing.

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