Wednesday, February 18, 2015
By Charlie Wolf for the Daily Mail
Updated: 13:01 GMT, 1 February 2012
As they say on American television after a programme has been unexpectedly interrupted, 'we now return to the programme already in progress.'
As far as the Republican nominating process is concerned, the programme already in progress is Gov. Mitt Romney. He is predicted to win the Florida Primary today, polls giving him a lead of anywhere between 5 and 20 percentage points.
What's happened to Newt Gingrich? The momentum from South Carolina gave him a boost going into the Sunshine state, but now that is all gone. In fact, the polls have been going up and down like an Orlando rollercoaster.
Fading: Newt Gingrich has lost the momentum he had coming into the South Carolina primaryIt seems that the public fancy with the former House Speaker may have been a cathartic last sigh before hard-line conservatives come to the notion that it is better to win with a conservative-enough Romney (though I would argue that Romney is far more conservative than he is given credit for) than to nominate some kind of conservative holy grail candidate; one able to pull the Sword of Reagan from the stone, but unable to use it to defeat Barack Obama and win back Camelot in the autumn.
Stretched and fantastic metaphors aside, Gingrich won South Carolina thanks to a once-in-a-lifetime perfect storm. He had two good debates - actually one good debate and then that famous comeback to CNN's John King in the second. It sure is easy when the crowd is with you, the jokes roll of the tip of the tongue and the barbs are extra sharp and all meet their targets with ease.
Romney was caught off guard on two fronts. Firstly on his taxes, which he has since released and are now a non-issue. Secondly in writing off Gingrich after Iowa. Gingrich rose from the dead and the Romney team were unable to respond in time. Romney learned his lesson and this businessman will not make the same mistake twice.
Romney's ground game for Florida was already well in operation before South Carolina was even voting. Television time was bought up ages ago and Romney almost had the airwaves to himself at one stage - crucially as postal ballots had gone out (and well before his S.C. slump). He has been pounding Gingrich with negative ads ever since.
Combine that with the fact that in the debates, Romney is back on form and Gingrich is not. There was no crowd for Gingrich to play to in the first Florida debate. Romney kept him on the defensive the whole time, leaving Newt unable to gain any ground.
Gingrich's main pitch has been his ability to debate. He has repeatedly stressed his willingness to take on Obama in a debate. But as popular and interesting an event as a Lincoln-Douglas debate between the Speaker and the president would be, it won't happen. Anyway, based on his performance in the two Florida debates, Gingrich is not consistent enough for voters to bet the farm on him against Obama.
Elections are based on organisation. The ability to get one's message out, not just in a debate, but on the airwaves, over the phone (volunteer callers and robo-calls) all backed up by a giant organisational machine.
The Romney campaign team and the SuperPACs supporting him have massively outspent the Gingrich team. According to the Los Angeles Times:
'Mitt Romney's campaign had spent $6.9 million to air commercials on the state's broadcast and cable channels as of Monday morning, while Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Romney, had spent $8.5 million, according to a campaign source familiar with the ad buys. Newt Gingrich's campaign spent $1.6 million over the same time period, and Winning Our Future, the pro-Gingrich super PAC, spent $2.2 million.'
Advantage: Mitt Romney's campaign is backed up by formidable organisation and fundingThings to watch for in today's Florida Primary:
Florida is like at least three states in one. The northern part of the state, including the Panhandle and cities of Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Pensacola, is the most 'Southern' in terms of attitude. You are still in the deep south of neighbouring states like Georgia and Alabama. Gingrich should show well here.
The further south geographically one goes, the more Northern the state becomes. West Palm Beach down to Miami on the eastern side of the state (the I-95 corridor) is made up of retirees from the North East - very Jewish. This is Romney Country.
The I-4 (interstate highway) from Orlando to Tampa is the place to watch. There are many who have also moved into the state to work for the many theme parks in this region. Don't forget as well the Gulf Coast region.
Miama and the South - The Latino population is not homogeneous. Cubans are very different from Puerto Ricans in their attitudes to issues such as immigration. Cubans are more republican in nature and I have a feeling they will break for Romney. Puerto Ricans on the other hand are mainly Democrats and they could win the state for Obama in the fall.Florida closely mirrors the demographic makeup of the rest of the USA (though it is just a little older). It is a must win for the Republicans in the autumn election.
Florida is a winner-take-all primary. There are fifty delegates up for grabs (half of the normal amount, they were penalised by the RNC for moving their primary before March 6).
If, as expected, Romney wins in Florida it sets him up well for March. There is only one debate scheduled and the states include Nevada (one third Mormon), Maine (neighbouring New Hampshire) and Michigan, where he was born.
Should Romney lose, then Santorum could be back in the game, or this will go all the way to the convention in Tampa later in the summer
Whatever happens in Florida, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich will not be dropping out. Same with Santorum unless the money runs out.
var rcShoutCache = '{}'; window._taboola = window._taboola || []; _taboola.push({flush:true}); DM.later('bundle', function(){ if (window.ArticlePage) { new ArticlePage(); } });
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Kara Scott
2nd World Rank
Final Table WSOP
World Series Of Poker
0 comments:
Post a Comment