Wednesday, February 18, 2015
By Charlie Wolf for the Daily Mail
Updated: 11:34 GMT, 17 January 2012
This morning, a week after a respectable but still unconvincing third place show in New Hampshire, Jon Huntsman threw his hat out of the ring and endorsed rival --and fellow Latter-day Saint (Mormon) Mitt Romney.
With a major debate this evening in South Carolina (2 AM London time, sponsored by Fox News -- Sky channel 509) and the all important primary on Saturday, Huntsman realised that his campaign was not gaining traction. Nationally he has not broken the 1%-2% mark in the polls.
Endorsements are not generally that influential or that important. But Huntsman's endorsement of Romney is significant.
Out of the race: Jon Huntsman has abandoned his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, and given his support to Mitt RomneyFormer Secretary of State, Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama in the final days of the 2008 campaign. Powell is still highly respected, but considered a marginal figure in the Republican Party. His endorsement, though sincere and principled on his part, had more to do with the fact that a fellow African-American was on the cusp of being the first of his race to win the highest office in the land. It didn't sway to many votes.
The same with Mail Columnist and former Sun editor, Kelvin McKenzie's famous front page splash from the 1992 Kinnock/Major general election. Kelvin's headline on the day of a very tight election, that was predicted to end in a hung parliament or slim Labour win was: "If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights".
It was one of the best Sun front pages ever, but as much as Kelvin --and some Tory MPs-- would like you to believe it was the "Sun Wot Won It" (another Kelvin classic) I don't think Kelvin, or his then boss, Rupert Murdoch, influenced elections as much as they had the ability to call the results; the ability to read the runes of public opinion far better than others.
In the Republican primaries, Romney's endorsement from John McCain may have helped sway some undecideds in New Hampshire, but don't expect to see much more of McCain for the rest of the election. To Republicans, McCain is on the one hand, a Patriot and Vietnam era hero; on the other, he is considered a RINO (Republican in name only) with some decidedly moderate, if not liberal positions. That's the last association the "Massachusetts Moderate" needs right now.
The Chris Christie endorsement is important more for having the rotund New Jersey governor Christie on the campaign trail. A straight shooting, no-holds-barred combatant, acting as a surrogate, Christie, like a Chris Moyles on steroids, has an acid tipped tongue that has put several Occupy protesters in their place and has produced several sharply directed barbs at President Obama.
The only endorsement that may have any importance in this primary campaign, to the effect of swinging the election and changing the way the herd breaks, may be that of Sarah Palin with her Tea Party faithful.
Palin's husband has endorsed Newt Gingrich (maybe testing the waters for his wife); it is rumoured she favours Texas Governor Rick Perry, but with his national numbers worse than the now exited John Huntsman's, she may be keeping her powder dry. The endorsement of a candidate, like Huntsman, with little base and on the way down, does not bring many votes.
But, his exit and his endorsement of Mitt Romney is significant for other reasons.
Huntsman's endorsement acknowledges that this race is about finding the candidate best able to beat Obama in the autumn. It is a recognition that the ability to beat Obama is more important than ideological purity to voters this year. Romney is still the most presidential looking of the candidates and considered best to beat Obama.
This is also an acknowledgement that the anti-Bain campaign against Romney is failing. Newt Gingrich, whose Super PAC produced a 28 minute long web broadcast about Romney's time at Bain, has called on them to edit out inaccuracies in the film.
This is not an altruistic act of truth seeking on Gingrich's part, but an admittance that his plan to smear Romney from the left is back-firing, badly.
Gingrich's bump will be far shorter-lived as will any damage to Romney, who is already coming out stronger. For Gingrich, and others taking the anti-Bain, anti-free trade line, in the long run, it will damage them.
One major backer of Rick Perry's left the Texan for Romney on principle after the attacks -- not on Romney, but on the free market system itself with comments like "vulture capitalism."
The fight back from Romney, with former associates from companies that Bain and Romney have helped, such as Staples, are already coming forward.
Front-runner: Mitt Romney is widely considered the Republican party's best hope of beating ObamaRomney will be the object of many slings and arrows at tonight's debate; South Carolina is bare-knuckle politics at its best. But this is his turn to take on his critics face-to-face. He needs to make his argument more than about Bain Capital; more than being on the defensive, having to explain himself.
He needs to, in sweeping presidential tones, defend the free market system. Not only does he have to show that free market capitalism is the best system at creating wealth ever devised, but he needs to show --as Lady Thatcher so famously did-- that the free market is morally correct (and socialism morally wrong).
The only candidate who can possibly stop --more like temporarily hinder Romney, is Rick Santorum. But connecting with Evangelicals may not be enough. They too, as seeking a candidate who can beat Obama. The economy and jobs matter to them just as much as faith and conservative social issues.
According to polls, Romney is not as 'moderate' as his rivals are depicting him. He is scoring big with conservatives, Evangelicals and most other groups. South Carolina may be the buckle on the Bible Belt, but it is becoming more and more diverse a state, a noted retirement community with transplants from the Northeast (Romney country).
The Palmetto state far better reflects demographically and attitudinal-ly, the national Republican party than anywhere else. That is why South Carolina has voted in her primary for every eventual Republican presidential winner since 1980. It is a must win state. Romney is still ahead, and gaining in South Carolina.
Romney also has the organisation in place to fight battles on several fronts as well. The all important Florida Primary --a winner take all ballot-- may not be until 31 January, but Romney is already concentrating his efforts there. All available TV and radio advertising in several key counties has already been bought up by Romney or his PACs. Absentee ballots are already out in Florida; there are more absentee ballots in Florida than there were ballots in New Hampshire.
Taking the first four election contest in a row will set Romney up nicely for the February lull. He may even have the nomination wrapped up before the intense run of primaries in March and Super Tuesday.
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