Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Updated: 18:07 GMT, 19 January 2012
Positive: It has undoubtedly been a good week for Newt Gingrich
It has, no doubt, been a good week for former Speaker, Newt Gingrich, going into the South Carolina primary on Saturday. After a very good debate performance on Fox News on Monday (a debate he is considered to have won handily) he is now tightening-up in the opinion polls, coming in close behind Gov. Mitt Romney. Romney still leads in South Carolina with about 30% - ten points above Gingrich, but closing. Nationally, Gingrich has come up to second place, only points away in some polls -- though national polls have little relevance in state-wide contests.
Newt's week just keeps getting better and better. Today the Iowa Republican Party has declared their caucus not a win for Romney, but a 'virtual tie' - officially Rick Santorum is the winner now, but there are several precincts where the tallies will never be known. It takes away Romney's claim to be the first Republican non-incumbent to win Iowa and New Hampshire back-to-back, but beyond that it has little bearing on the race other than as a major embarrassment on the Iowa state party.
Still it adds to Newt's overall momentum - helping him more than it does Rick Santorum. Add to that, Governor Rick Perry just pullling out of the presidential race this afternoon. Those votes, as few as they are, will go to Gingrich -- and it could convince other voters to coalesce around Gingrich as the non-Rom candidate.
Earlier this week Gov Sarah Palin also gave an endorsement, of sorts, to Newt Gingrich. Speaking to Sean Hannity she said,
"I can tell you what I would do if I were a South Carolinian… If I were a South Carolinian though, and each one of these primaries and caucuses are different, Sean, I want to see this thing continue because iron sharpens iron. Steel sharpens steel. These guys are getting better in their debates. They are getting more concise. They are getting more grounded in what their beliefs are and articulating what their ideas are for getting America back on the right track and getting Americans working again. If I had to vote in South Carolina order to keep this thing going, I would vote for Newt and I would want it to continue. More debates, more vetting of candidates."
So, her endorsement was more about the process than the man. And she is correct in her assessment. Even if Romney is to be the eventual winner --and I still believe he will be-- he needs vetting now, not for any skeletons in the closet, but as a way to get any negatives out in the open and dealt with. It can only strengthen Romney for the main event in November.
When Newt is on form he is amazing to watch. With his vast knowledge of American History; his ability to understand and explain American Exceptionalism, the United States of America has no finer spokesman than Newt Gingrich. Put him on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, roll the cameras and cue the music, Newt Gingrich will give you an epic discourse on the United States as a land blessed by God above all other lands; a shining city on a hill.
But which Newt will show up on the stage for tonight's debate? For Newt Gingrich possesses that kind of greatness that comes in spurts and starts. His personality is mercurial, ego-driven and it is self-interest and self-importance that drives him. Where a business figure like Mitt Romney course corrects from mistakes or personal attacks on him, with a slow and steady hand on the tiller (and so far Romney, this campaign has suffered some of the most), Gingrich's flaw is to take attacks personally; to react.
Where others seek rebuttal he desires revenge. His campaign, since suffering a loss in Iowa due to attack ads by the Romney camp, has been one long, personally negative diatribe against Gov. Romney which has in the end only made Romney stronger and made Newt look small. His negative attacks on Romney, Bain Capital and the free market system itself, were not intended to help Gingrich in the polls, but to personally get revenge on Romney. They didn't work.
Columnist Charles Krauthammer compared Newt to Captain Ahab, with Mitt as his great white whale.
In many regards, I see Gingrich as a Nixonian figure. A smart, driven man. A genius in areas of policy. But with Nixon's fatal personal flaws. Flaws that he just cannot control. He is ego-centric and paranoid the whole world is out to get him; he believes the presidency is his by natural right.
Gingrich's positive showing on Monday's debate --and the momentum that came with it that is propelling him in the polls, was because for once, on Monday, he didn't make it personal. Instead of focusing his time on denigrating Romney as a rich-kid, Massachusetts moderate, he spent his time doing what he does best: Painting a positive picture of the United States, her greatness, and demonstrating that this ideal system, set up by the founding fathers sitll works, is still relevant. Only Alexis de Tocqueville (the 19th century French historian and philosopher, who wrote the book Democracy in America and coined the term American Exceptionalism) could have done better. His target was not Romney, but Obama and his policies.
But already, Newt is deviating from the positive message that brought him success on Monday. By yesterday "Bad Newt" was back on form. Speaking to a crowd of about 350 people in Warrenville, S.C. he said, "I fully expect the Romney campaign to be unending-ly dirty and dishonest."
That is Newt's flaw - and it is Romney's strength. Romney has distilled his presidential run down to two salient messages: 'I am the only one who can beat Barack Obama' and second; 'My business experience makes me the only one who can fix the economy and create jobs.' That overarching, long view approach is still working. Romney stays on message. He learned this the hard way in 2008 and personally from watching his own father, George Romney's campaign, implode over his "Viet Nam brainwashing" comments in the 1968 election.
The political centre in America right now is for someone who will beat Obama and manage the economy. What Newt offers, as great as it can be at times, is not what the people want. They want an assurance that whoever they choose will beat Obama. They are pragmatic this year, and I don't think they will trust or chance mercurial Newt.
We will get a good look at which of the two Newts is the real one over the next couple of days. His ex-wife, Marianne, who has said she could, "end her ex-husband's career with a single interview" has, as Matt Drudge reports in an exclusive, "spoke to ABCNEWS reporter Brian Ross for two hours, and her explosive revelations are set to rock the trail." It is still not clear when ABC plans to run this interview. Some reports say the network feels it would be 'unethical' to run it before the S.C. contest and will wait until Monday. The latest reports say they could run the interview tonight (Thursday) - the night of an all important debate.
Gingrich's second wife has barely spoken during this election cycle. Her comments are bound to be explosive and not only will they inevitably take Gingrich's eye of the ball for several days, they will have the ability to reveal the real Gingrich. How he responds will be far more important than his --or Romney's-- performance in tonight's debate.
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