So, what price the 'loonies, fruitcakes and racists' of UKIP now, Dave?

By Nigel Jones for the Daily Mail

Published: 13:36 GMT, 20 August 2012 | Updated: 18:36 GMT, 20 August 2012

'August for the people and their favourite islands...'wrote the poet W.H.Auden, and certainly the holiday summer month has traditionally been a time when the politics-pummelled public have been allowed a brief respite from the daily diet of despair and decay that passes for modern British public life.

This year, of course, the bread and circuses of  holiday time has been further lightened by the brilliant distraction of the London Olympics, soon to be followed by the Para-Olympics.

But inevitably, as the dog days of August limp away, and the summer gives way to the party conference season,  the shadow of politics returns to cast its grim spell over us again. So has anything changed for the twitching corpse that comprises the British body politic?

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Back in action: After a summer break, all political parties are soon to hold their annual party conferences

For the Coalition, the outlook remains stormy. In fact as soggily rain sodden as our apology for a summer.

Since March's Budget it has been blindingly obvious to all but the most obtuse that the pantomime horse of a Government has no serious plans to cut our terrifying debts; stimulate growth by slashing tax, or undertake any effective measures to rescue Britain from its economic plight.

The economy has been bumping along the bottom for so long now that it is digging a groove that will become the Coalition's grave.

If the so-called Conservative party did have any such Tory plans, they would be squashed instantly by the rear end of the pantomime horse, the Lib Dems, whose agenda as set out in its Brighton conference next month, is firmly anti-business, anti-prosperity and only in favour of wasting more billions that we don't have on subsidising the not-so jolly Green giant of wind farms.

Farce: Rail passengers have been hit with a hike in train fares, which is hardly a move by the Tories to win back the vote of hard-pushed commuters

As for the Tories, supposed to be the front end of the Coalition horse (though its increasingly hard  to tell the difference) it's business as usual, which is to say a continuation of Dave's plans to alienate both the voters themselves and his own party members in particular.

The brilliant wheeze of hiking up rail fares - already the highest in Europe - is hardly calculated to win back the affections of hard-pressed commuters, while the plan to concrete over our precious Green Belt - this at a time when millions of acres of empty office space is already going begging - seems nicely calculated to destroy Tory majorities in its natural seats in the suburbs and shires.

Both these idiotic schemes are likely to trigger fresh rebellions by Tory MPs who have already tasted Coaliton blood in overturning Clegg's Lords Reforms.

Looking at the omnishambles he presides over, I'm driven to the conclusion that if David Cameron were a Soviet-style sleeper, inserted into the Tory party in his youth on a secret mission from its enemies to destroy it from within, he could not have done a better job.

Even his celebrated A-list scheme to 'de-toxify the Tory brand' by ignoring local wishes and parachuting non-Conservative candidates into safe seats, so long as they were of the right ethnic background or shared his privileged Metropolitan liberalism, has come unstuck with the petulant decision by the scheme's star, Louise Mensch, to junk her responsibilities to the voters who elected her and flee to New York.

Though it would be ungallant to compare the gorgeous, pouting Ms Mensch with a scaly-tailed rodent, this looks very much like a case of the first rat diving off Dave's sinking ship. The coming by-election in Ms Mensch's Corby seat looks certain to be a Labour walkover.

Surveying this woeful scene as he returns from his breaks in Spain and Cornwall, what will Dave do? The word is that he intends to re-shuffle his Cabinet, as though by calling up some fresh deckchairs from the Titanic's stores will stave off its ultimate fate.

In any event, the reported refusal of the Cabinet's secret LIberal Democrat, Ken Clarke, to be moved from his post as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, exposes Dave's terminal weakness in all its abject ignominy. If he cannot shift this Euro-fanatical monument to complacency on crime because Clarke enjoys lolling on the Woolsack too much, what can he do?

Re-shuffle: Following rumors of a Cabinet re-shuffle, it has been said that justice secretary Ken Clarke has refused to move from his current post

Political commentators on both Left and Right are now virtually unanimous in agreeing that unless the all-important economic revival happens, then Dave will be a dead duck  come the next election. And he will take his party down with him.

The Coaliton will rip asunder like an ancient quilt, and despite the disastrous record of the last Labour government, the two Eds will walk back into Downing Street as though the Coalition had never been.  And with prospects for  such an economic pick-up dwindling by the day, this becomes less of a threatening probability and more of an absolute certainty. Indeed, civil servants are this week reported to be holding discreet talks with the Labour leadership on the surely correct assumption that they will form the next Government.

There is only one way that the Tories can avert the fate that seemingly inevitably awaits them, and it would probably involve another Coalition, or if not a Coalition, then at least a pact with a party that is now running neck and neck with the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls, its ranks swelled by defecting Tories sickened by Dave's destruction of their party.

That party is, of course, the United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP, the only serious force in politcs dedicated to giving the British people the referendum denied by all three major parties on this country's future with the increasingly dysfunctional, increasingly anti-democratic European Union. David Cameron, a not-so-covert Europhile down to the EU logo cufflinks he used to wear, would never deal with a party he once sneeringly dismissed as 'loonies, fruitcakes and racists' but another Tory leader might have to.

Outside hope: If the Conservative Party drop Dave and grant a referendum, UKIP voters who hold the margin between defeat and victory in at least 20 Tory seats may - just may - return to the Tory fold

As 2015 draws ever nearer, the slow-mo car crash that is the Eurozone crisis will continue to unfold, and UKIP will continue to grow. More and more people are likely to see  that our future as a nation lies in a world wider than the crumbling Euro castle.

Now that Nick Clegg has blocked the possibility of boundary reforms which might have given the Tories an extra score of seats at the election, it is UKIP that holds the Conservative party's cards. Drop Dave, grant a referendum, and UKIP voters who hold the margin between defeat and victory in at least 20 Tory seats may - just may - return to the Tory fold.  But  if the party continues to sail blithely on  towards its doom under Captain Cameron, its fate is now assured.

This thought should concentrate the minds of Tory MPs wonderfully. Who are the loonies and fruitcakes now?

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